Crooked Pitch

I’m still catching up here on publishing the commentary from each selection in our slow mock draft. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, and round 5.

• Round 6 : Pick 1(61) - @seniorcircuit - Geovany Soto - After the elite catchers were off the board I was surprised that Soto was still there for me. I don’t mind taking a catcher early, especially in 2 catcher leagues. Who even started the 2 catcher policy? I can see Soto make a slight regression as pitchers get used to seeing him but will still put up quality numbers from the catchers spot.  I project Soto at 70/22/85/.275
• Round 6 : Pick 2(62) - @jasoncollette - Chris Davis - This was going to be Votto’s spot but alas, someone loves him more than I do. I saw Davis go in the 5th round of the MLB expert draft I’m doing and at this rate,  he’s going to go in a 4th round by March. He will hit behind Kinsler, Young, Hamilton, and Cruz so there is plenty of potential for 35 homers, 100+ RBI, but anything over .265 is a bonus.
• Round 6 : Pick 3(63) - @dowdyism - Stephen Drew -He has the bloodlines, and 2008 saw the breakout of Stephen Drew. I was looking for either Drew or Geovany Soto on the turn, and once Soto was gone, it was an easy decision.  I missed out on the 2B run, so I wanted to be sure to get good production from SS. Last years numbers are a good baseline on what I expect in 2009.
• Round 6 : Pick 4(64) - @therotofeed - Hunter Pence - I think this is the year before the breakout year for Pence, which should still come out rather nicely. I’m guessing he won’t be as much of a feast and famine guy this year and I’m hunting for 90/30/90.
• Round 6 : Pick 5(65) - @sporer - Robinson Cano -I was ready to take Cano when I took Granderson so I’m pleased to see him fall another round to me. In a tough season, he still put a pretty usable line at second base. I expect a much better season in the area of 2007’s breakout campaign. The lineup in New York is still excellent meaning the R & RBI numbers will be plentiful and he should have a better batting average (nearing .300) if he can avoid hitting .242 for a half as in 2008.  I’m predicting a bounce back season for Cano and I’m happy to get him in the 6th.
• Round 6 : Pick 6(66) - @tommystv - Shane Victorino - Victorino was the last top 50 player I had on my board still remaining. Although I do watch for value players slipping I like to justify a need before I pull the trigger. I needed to address steals at some point and this is a value you pick almost 3 rds beyond where he skill set justified him going. I’d love to see that little bit of pop he had last year continue.
• Round 6 : Pick 7(67) - @xxldaddyo - Cliff Lee -I already took the best Catcher in baseball (Brian McCann) in the 4th Round so why not pare him up with the best Starting Pitcher in baseball last year: AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee. Lee’s breakout year reminds me eerily of Chris Carpenters breakout season in 2004. Both were 29 when they came into their own and while it may not be reasonable to expect Lee to match last years SICK numbers, if he does 90% of that? I’d be a happy man.
• Round6 : Pick 8(68) - @jefeboy - Carlos Delgado -At this point I just needed power, and chose Delgado over Dunn because I think their HR totals will be in the same ballpark but Delgado should hurt my BA less.
• Round 6 : Pick 9(69) - @fakebaseball - Bobby Abreu -My pick of Bobby Abreu is an example of going with your rankings even though you dislike the player, and there are sexier picks on the board ahead of him. I have .285/16-18 HR/20 SB penciled in for Abreu, with a goodly amount of runs driven in and scored, because chances are wherever he lands (Cincinnati, perhaps?), he’ll be put in the middle of the order (regardless of whether or not he deserves it at this stage of his career). I fully recognize he’s a risk because he’s getting to the age where a precipitous decline can happen at any time, but I’ll take the risk, and the SBs, so I won’t have to suffer with “cheap speed” options later.
• Round 6 : Pick 10(70) - @TheRoundtable - Magglio Ordonez - I’m actually kicking myself because I missed the run on second basemen, so decided to fill in the outfield with who I feel is best available there at this point. The other positions seem relatively similar across the board over the next few players. Ordonez’s power numbers might be slightly down, but since his two-year injury run, he’s been healthy and providing good numbers for that Tigers offense. This is a guy that I have ranked in my top-50 (granted the end of it) that I was able to grab with pick 70.
• Round 6 : Pick 11(71) - @Angels2717 - Joe Nathan -Some might not think of taking Nathan as the first overall closer. But I believe this year, he will prove he is one of the best is not the best at his position. He has one of the lowest ERA’s of closers and is almost perfect on save oppurtunities. He has been very consistent throughout the past couple of years. No, he might not be the highest strikeout guy, but you don’t take closers just for their strikeouts.
• Round 6 : Pick 12(72) - @crookedpitch - Ryan Ludwick - I don’t expect Ludwick to approach a .300 batting average again in 2009. However, I do feel that 30 homers and 100 RBI are a distinct possibility. How could I pass up those numbers in the 6th round? Plus, it does sort of fit in with my power hitters theme that I’ve got going on.

This is going to be the shortest list so far as I rank the players by position. Why is that? Well, I’ll answer that, as well as many other questions that I know you all will ask before you can blow up my inbox with hate mail.

B.J. Upton is not on this list, he’ll be in the outfield rankings. Alexei Ramirez and Mike Aviles will be in the short stop rankings and Mark DeRosa will be in the third base rankings. Yes, I know they have second base eligibility, but I’m placing them in their projected position. I may go back and do a multiple eligibility list, and I may not. How’s that for setting expectations?

You also have a number of position battles going on. There’s Getz versus Nix in Chicago, Barmes versus Baker in Colorado, Burris versus Velez versus Frandsen in San Francisco and Antonelli versus Gonzalez in San Diego. Until winners are announced in those races, they’re not making the list.

Also, Orlando Hudson and Jeff Kent are missing from this list as they have yet to sign anywhere. I’ll include them once they do.

Here are the 2009 fantasy second base rankings:

1. Chase Utley | Philadelphia Phillies - He’s vowed to be ready by Opening Day. That’s good enough to make #1 on this list. A healthy Utley is the best second baseman in baseball, from a fantasy perspective.
2. Dustin Pedroia | Boston Red Sox - I’m going to be the first one on my block to grow a pair and launch Pedroia up where he belongs; #2 on this list. He hits better than Kinsler, scores more and drives in more. Plus he’s the reigning AL MVP! For all that is good in this world, hear me… Pedroia should be #2 on the fantasy second base rankings!
3. Ian Kinsler | Texas Rangers - Had Kinsler played in 157 games like Pedroia, he would have surpassed Pedroia’s numbers easily. But, he didn’t. In fact, Kinsler hasn’t played in more than 130 games in his career. Until he proves that he can stay healthy, he’s riding in the back seat of Pedroia’s car.
4. Brandon Phillips | Cincinnati Reds - Phillips is a perennial 20/20 guy and I bet he brings his batting average back up towards the .270 range this season too.
5. Brian Roberts | Baltimore Orioles - This guy approaches double digit home runs, 40 stolen bases, and a .300 batting average every year. I’m thinking .290/10/38 in ‘09 and he’ll score 95 as well. Solid!
6. Dan Uggla | Florida Marlins - Uggla is the first guy on this list who doesn’t steal bases. But, he does mash the ball with the best of them. Don’t expect his average to rise above .265, but you can bank on 25+ home runs, probably 30.
7. Robinson Cano | New York Yankees - If only Cano batted in the first half the way he did in the second half, he would be elite. That just doesn’t seem likely to happen though. He should get his batting average back up to .300 this season, but the 14-18 home runs he showed us last year seem to be his benchmark.
8. Jose Lopez | Seatle Mariners - How did Lopez emerge in ‘08? Fewer strikeouts, more walks, and a reasonable hit rate. Expect ‘09 to look more like ‘08 than ‘07. I’m thinking .280/15/75.
9. Kelly Johnson | Atlanta Braves - This should be the third year in a row that Johnson quietly hits around .275 and gets fantasy owners double digit home runs and stolen bases.
10. Placido Polanco | Detroit Tigers - If only Polanco had a touch more pop in his bat or speed. If only… He’s a solid .300+ hitter and he’ll score tons of runs.
11. Howie Kendrick | Los Angeles Angels - Kendrick is the person on this list most likely to outperform his ranking. If healthy, he could easily hit .315 with 15 home runs and 20 stolen bases. He’s also just as likely to fall and rip open his spleen to further prove to Angels fans that he’ll never reach the 100 game plateau. High risk/high reward here.
12. Alexi Casilla | Minnesota Twins - This 24-year-old can burn and should be given more green lights on the base paths in ‘09. He’s probably more like a .270 hitter than .280, but could reach double digit home runs with 550+ at-bats.
13. Rickie Weeks | Milwaukee Brewers - Every year I hear that Weeks’ true hitting skills were shown in 2006 with his .279 batting average and not the garbage we see every other year. If you’ve said this recently, or in the past, I’m telling you that you’re wrong. Weeks is a .235 hitter who benefitted from an extremely high hit rate in 2006. He will, however, plant 15 homers in the seats and come close to scoring 100. You’d just better have a plan to make up for his sloppy batting average.
14. Freddy Sanchez | Pittsburgh Pirates - Sanchez always seems to get you close to a .300 average with 8-10 home runs and 75 to 85 runs scored. Nothing should be different in 2009.
15. Kaz Matsui | Houston Astros - 20 stolen bases in 375 at-bats with a .293 batting average in ‘08? Draft him late just for those numbers and jump for joy if he reaches 500 at-bats.
16. Mike Fontenot | Chicago Cubs - With DeRosa out Fontenot finally earns the starting job in Chicago. I may be going out on a limb here, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see .285 with 13 home runs, 60 RBI amd 75 runs scored.
17. Felipe Lopez | Arizona Diamondbacks - Lopez hit .283 last year and gave glimpses that he could have a power surge of sorts. A few more home runs (read:11) and stolen bases (read:15) make Lopez somewhat relevant.
18. Aaron Hill | Toronto Blue Jays -Hill is walking more and striking out less which will help him bring his average back up. Don’t expect .291 as his hit rate was abnormally high in ‘07. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see .280-.285 with 10 home runs.
19. Akinora Iwamura | Tampa Bay Rays -What you saw last year (.274/4/48/91/8) is pretty much what you get.
20. Mark Ellis | Oakland Athletics -Ellis isn’t really a .233 hitter. A hit rate plunge was likely the culprit in driving his average down in ‘08. He won’t hit much higher than .255 though, but he will blast 12-16 homers and reach double digit steals.
21. Blake DeWitt | Los Angeles Dodgers - Dewitt started over Kent in the playoffs and that trend should remain true whether or not Kent comes back. Don’t expect his batting average to head north much, but he could hit a few more home runs.
22. Luis Castillo | New York Mets - He’s slowing down a bit and striking out more, which doesn’t bode well for his only perceived value of batting average, runs scored and stolen bases. This guy  is trending downward.
23. Asdrubal Cabrera | Cleveland Indians - Strikes out a lot, but strangely walks a lot too. Until we figure that out, think of Cabrera hitting .265 with 8-10 home runs and 8-10 stolen bases.
24. Adam Kennedy | St. Louis Cardinals - Gets at-bats in St. Louis mainly because of his glove. How many of you use fielding statistics in your fantasy leagues?
25. Alberto Callaspo | Kansas City Royals - Doesn’t offer much other than a .280 or so batting average in ‘09.
26. Anderson Hernandez | Washington Nationals - If a .250 hitting second baseman with very few home runs and stolen bases fits into your fantasy agenda, this is your guy.