Crooked Pitch

Josh Fleet is writing today’s guest post about the Toronto Blue Jays. Josh is a writer at John McDonald’s Cabinet, a hot new Blue Jays blog. Josh is also a writer at Downtown Sports and is on twitter and should be followed. You can find him at @JMChollywoodj.

Is there any fantasy value amongst the Toronto Blue Jays? The simple answer is… maybe. The Jays have 3 players that will certainly go in almost all leagues.

• The first lock with a great deal of fantasy value is Roy Halladay. Halladay should be a top 10 fantasy starter in all leagues. He may be the most consistent pitcher in the American League, and fantasy owners were pleasantly surprised by his strikeout totals in 2008. Halladay should be good for close to 20 wins, an ERA below 3.50, and a WHIP below 1.15. If Halladay drops out of the top 10 starters in drafts something is wrong.
• The next player with great fantasy value is Alex Rios. Rios should be a top 25 outfielder in mixed leagues. He saw a great increase in his stolen base totals last season, grabbing over 30 bags for the first time in his young career. Rios should be a 20/20 guy, and a reliable outfielder.
• The next player to watch is Vernon Wells. Wells has disappointed fantasy owners over the last couple years: due to a poor performance in 2007, and injuries in 2008. All indications are that Wells will be healthy on Opening Day, and could present great value for owners. Wells has 30 home run potential and can hit for average. If Wells is available late, he could be a great pick-up.

While, these three players present a great deal of fantasy value, there are also some decent sleepers amongst the Jays.

• Travis Snider, will be an everyday player at the ripe age of 21, and could knock out 25 home runs.
• Adam Lind, will also be an everyday player and could also hit around 25 homers.
• Also, be sure to keep your eyes on the young Blue Jays pitching, as they always seem to find reliable young starters in their minor league system (Marcum, McGowan, Litsch).

Overall, the Blue Jays present SOME fantasy value on draft day. Yet, the youngsters that can probably be found in the free agent pool may be a pleasant surprise to owners.

If you are a team blogger and are interested writing a fantasy preview, let me know.

Pitchers and catchers are reporting this week. That makes this the perfect time to start working on the rankings for starting pitchers.

Today, let’s look at the top ten:

1. Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants - The real question at the top of the starting pitcher rankings is who to rank #1 between Lincecum and Santana. I like Lincecum to win strikeouts and ERA and Santana to get more wins and have a better WHIP. I’m giving Lincecum the nod here as I think he crushed Santana in strikeouts and the other three categories are relatively similar.
2. Johan Santana | New York Mets - I must be crazy to rank a guy #2 when I feel he’ll lead the league in wins, strike out 200+ and lead all starting pitchers in WHIP. Call me crazy, I just think Lincecum is a little more special.
3. C.C. Sabathia | New York Yankees - I like Sabathia to be a top three starting pitcher in wins and to keep his WHIP under 1.20 and strike out close to 200. I do worry about his return to the American League though.
4. Cole Hamels | Philadelphia Phillies - Hamels will finish just behind Sabathis in wins, strikeouts and ERA but actually might have more upside. His fabulous post-season performance last season should give him a huge shot of confidence going into ‘09.
5. Roy Halladay | Toronto Blue Jays - Halladay’s K/9 spiked dramatically last season; a trend that will probably normalize in ‘09. He won’t win 20 again, his numbers will still be very ace-like.
6. Brandon Webb | Arizona Diamondbacks - Webb is the model of consistency here. He’s gone five years in a row with over 200 innings pitched and 30 starts. You know exactly what you’re going ot get when you grab Webb.
7. Jake Peavy | San Diego Padres - If there was a dropoff point among the starting pitchers (read: tier) this would be the first one. Peavy isn’t the same pitcher he used to be (which is hard to say about a 27-year-old), but you can still count on a sub 3.50 ERA, double digit wins and almost 200 strikeouts.
8. Dan Haren | Arizona Diamondbacks - Haren gives the Diamondbacks what might be the best one-two punch in baseball on the mound. He’s been trending wonderfully with his strikeout totals, WHIP and win totals. He may not even be done improving.
9. Roy Oswalt | Houston Astros - It seemed like everything that was hit in the air against Oswalt in the first half of last season left the ballpark. He corrected that in the second half and returned to the premium pitcher we all knew he could be. Don’t pay for second half numbers, but realize that he’s a 15-win guy who will stay well below the 4.00 ERA mark.
10. James Shields | Tampa Bay Rays - Shields has grown as a pitcher in each of the last two seasons and does just about everything well. At age 27, expect another growth year in ‘09.

I’m way behind here on publishing the commentary from each selection in our slow mock draft. To refresh your memory, go back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2, and round 3.

• Round 4 : Pick 1(37) - @seniorcircuit - C.C. Sabathia - I was surprised and pleased to find Sabathia still on the board as my pick, for the beginning of the 4th round.  He was the 3rd pitcher taken overall behind Santana and Lincecum, which was different than the outcome of the poll on crookedpitch.com, asking who should be the first pitcher taken in drafts, found here. I have faith in him being a workhorse this season and settling into the role as ace of the Yankees, there shouldn’t be any need for him to worry about getting traded.  Sabathia will put up 18-20 wins, 3.40 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and well over 200 strikeouts.  I am also continuing my personal run of drafting players that are on brand new teams with huge contracts.
• Round 4 : Pick 2(38) - @jasoncollette - Alex Rios - I called him as a 30/30 guy for the Fanball magazine so I’m putting my money where my mouth is. Look at the difference last year once the Jays brought Gaston in and got rid of Dembo’s hitting instruction.
• Round 4 : Pick 3(39) - @dowdyism - Ichiro Suzuki -It had been all power, all the time for my team up to this point.  It was time to get some steals in the mix, and Ichiro is the perfect fit in the fourth round.  He has been a model of consistency since entering the league, and 100 runs and a high AVG will compliment his stolen base output quite nicely.
• Round 4 : Pick 4(40) - @therotofeed - Nate McClouth - After passing on the likes of Braun and Longoria during earlier rounds in favor of players with slightly longer fantasy track records, I went ahead and took Nate McLouth with my fourth pick.  I tend to try to take “boring” picks with my first three picks in a snake draft, looking for reliability above all. By the time I get to round four, though, it’s time to seek some upside. And I think McLouth will have an even better year than last year.
• Round 4 : Pick 5(41) - @sporer - Kevin Youkilis -Here is why I don’t think the 13 home run increase from Youk was a fluke: his walk rate fell by 3% and I believe a lot of that was him going for solid pitches that he ended up being able to do a lot with earlier in the count. Known as the Greek God of Walks, I think in past seasons he was waiting for the perfect pitch or just taking a walk. To wit, he had 15 home runs after a 1-0 count against just seven in 2007. I feel like another 25+ home run season rests on Youk’s shoulders as he decides whether or not he wants to take that approach again this season. As part of that lineup, his counting stats will be excellent as well. Throw in mixed eligibility at 1B/3B and I’m pleased to land him here in the 3rd.
• Round 4 : Pick 6(42) - @tommystv - Vladimir Guerrero -I’ll admit I’m an Angels fan, and I became an Angels fan because of Vlad. With that being said, there is no one in the last seven picks that I would value more than Vlad. If Sabathia or Lincecum would have fallen I may have gone pitcher and Ichiro I would have viewed as equal, and would have been happy to maybe make a solid move on steals. Could have gone Ordonez or maybe McCann, but I’m feling good about Vlad falling to the middle of the 4th. .300 and around 30 HRs, lock it up.
• Round 4 : Pick 7(43) - @xxldaddyo - Brian McCann -Ya gotta have a catcher (or two) so why not take the best hitting catcher in all of baseball? McCann cut down on his K’s in the 2H last year while increasing his walks. Forget the 23 HR and .301 BA of last year. I’ll pencil him in for 26 HR and .310 in ‘09.
• Round 4 : Pick 8(44) - @jefeboy - Rafael Furcal -Was considering 3 players at this spot — Youkilis as the best remaining 1B, McCann as the #1 C and Furcal as the best remaining SS. The choice was simplified by my opponents. Staying with the IF strategy, gotta love the potential for contributions in 4 categories from SS. Shandler loves him this year and I love Shandler.
• Round 4 : Pick 9(45) - @fakebaseball - Dan Haren -I’ll probably be accused of reaching, but I feel that my fourth-round selection, Dan Haren, stands a good chance of matching the fantasy value of–or even outperforming–Webb, Halladay, Hamels, and Peavy in ‘09. I believe Haren will match or exceed 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 8 K/9, with an impressive win total. It can be intimidating to go against the collective wisdom of average draft position when you are significantly more positive or more negative on a player, but it’s hard to win without taking risks.
• Round 4 : Pick 10(46) - @TheRoundtable - Brandon Webb -I won’t lie to you, this goes against my personal philosophy of not drafting pitching in the first five rounds, but I’m looking at value here. Webb has been going in the third round of most drafts, and getting him towards the end of the fourth is solid value. He’s going to be close to 20 wins, is consistently around a 3.20 ERA and keep his WHIP sub-1.25 (my threshold for top pitching). I just didn’t like the options available at some of the other positions as far as grabbing them here. There are others on my radar, but I think they’ll be around on the swing and in round six as well.
• Round 4 : Pick 11(47) - @Angels2717 - Roy Halladay -I am very happy to be able to get a solid pitcher in the late 4th round.  Halladay is one of those guys you love to have as your number one pitcher on a fantasy team. I like his high strikeout capability and 17+ win capability. Glad to be able to draft him at this point.
• Round 4 : Pick 12(48) - @crookedpitch - Russell Martin - If at all possible, I wanted to grab one of the big four catchers (McCann, Martin, Soto & Mauer). Martin’s ADP is 43.4, so this is a pretty good spot to grab him. McCann already went, so the run on catchers will shortly follow (most likely accentuated by my pick here). I actually like Martin’s fantasy value better than McCann’s. McCann has more pop, but Martin’s stolen base potential and multi-position eligibility make him a more valuable fantasy option.

Here are the fantasy baseball rankings for the top ten starting pitchers for the 2008 season. I will also list the predictions from the pre-season at the bottom of this post for comparison.

1. Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays - Halladay was one of four pitchers to win 20 games and was one of ten to strike out 200 or more hitters. He also finished second the league with nine complete games. 20 Wins | 206 K’s | 2.78 ERA | 1.05 WHIP
   
2. Cliff Lee, Cleveland Indians - His 22 wins were 17 more than his win total from 2007. He also cut his ERA in half and then some. 22 Wins | 170 K’s | 2.54 ERA | 1.11 WHIP
3. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants - Lincecum led the league in strikeouts and was in the top seven in wins pitching for a team with only 72 wins. 18 Wins | 265 K’s | 2.62 ERA | 1.17 WHIP
4. C.C. Sabathia, Milwaukee Brewers - The move to Milwaukee was the best thing to happen to Sabathia as his ERA dropped from 3.83 to 1.65 and his win total skyrocketed. 17 Wins | 251 K’s | 2.70 ERA | 1.11 WHIP
5. Johan Santana, New York Mets - No pitcher received more off-season hype last year than Santana. And while he seemed to accumulate strong stats quietly during the season, these numbers truly do shout that Santana is among the leagues best pitchers. 16 Wins | 206 K’s | 2.53 ERA | 1.15 WHIP
6. Ryan Dempster, Chicago Cubs - Dempster finished tenth in the league in ERA among starters with at least 100 innings of work. He was also 12th in strikeouts. Not bad for a guy who wasn’t a top notch reliever. 17 Wins | 187 K’s | 2.96 ERA | 1.21 WHIP
7. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies - Hamels might have lost ten times in 2008, but his ERA was on the very low side of 3.00 and his strikeouts almost hit the 200 mark. 14 wins isn’t too shabby either. 14 Wins | 196 K’s | 3.09 ERA | 1.08 WHIP
8. Dan Haren, Arizona Diamondbacks - Haren faded a little bit in the second half but his 200+ strikeouts, monster WHIP, and win total force him to be added to this list. 16 Wins | 206 K’s | 3.33 ERA | 1.13 WHIP
9. Rich Harden, Chicago Cubs - Harden’s inclusion here was a tough choice for me. On one hand he only started 25 games and pitched 148.0 innings. On the other hand he led the league in ERA, was in the top three in WHIP, and in the top 20 in strikeouts. 10 Wins | 181 K’s | 2.07 ERA | 1.06 WHIP
10. Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamondbacks - It was almost impossible to leave the MLB wins leader off this top ten list. If not for a rough June we might be talking Cy Young. 22 Wins | 183 K’s | 3.30 ERA | 1.20 WHIP

Below are the pre-season starting pitcher rankings.

2008 American League Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings

1. Josh Beckett | Boston Red Sox
2. C.C. Sabathia | Cleveland Indians
3. Erik Bedard | Baltimore Orioles
4. Justin Verlander | Detroit Tigers
5. Scott Kazmir | Tampa Bay Rays
6. John Lackey | Los Angeles Angels
7. Felix Hernandez | Seattle Mariners
8. Roy Halladay | Toronto Blue Jays
9. Daisuke Matsuzaka | Boston Red Sox
10. James Shields | Tampa Bay Rays
11. Fausto Carmona | Cleveland Indians
12. Javier Vazquez | Chicago White Sox
13. Kelvim Escobar | Los Angeles Angels
14. A.J. Burnett | Toronto Blue Jays
15. Chien-Ming Wang | New York Yankees
16. Francisco Liriano | Minnesota Twins
17. Jered Weaver | Los Angeles Angels
18. Joe Blanton | Oakland Athletics
19. Jeremy Bonderman | Detroit Tigers
20. Curt Schilling | Boston Red Sox

2008 National League Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings

1. Johan Santana | New York Mets
2. Jake Peavy | San Diego Padres
3. Brandon Webb | Arizona Diamondbacks
4. Cole Hamels | Philadelphia Phillies
5. Dan Haren | Arizona Diamondbacks
6. Aaron Harang | Cincinnati Reds
7. Carlos Zambrano | Chicago Cubs
8. Roy Oswalt | Houston Astros
9. John Smoltz | Atlanta Braves
10. Chris Young | San Diego Padres
11. Brett Myers | Philadelphia Phillies
12. Ben Sheets | Milwaukee Brewers
13. Matt Cain | San Francisco Giants
14. Rich Hill | Chicago Cubs
15. Brad Penny | Los Angeles Dodgers
16. Yovani Gallardo | Milwaukee Brewers
17. Jeff Francis | Colorado Rockies
18. Ted Lilly | Chicago Cubs
19. Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants
20. Tim Hudson | Atlanta Braves

The National League had six MVP’s this week compared to the American League’s two. It was all hitters for the NL and all pitchers for the AL. Does good pitching beat good hitting, or vice versa? I guess we’ll find out next week in NYC at the All-Star game.

Here are the week 14 fantasy baseball MVP’s.

Catcher: Geovany Soto | Chicago Cubs - Soto’s slash stats were impressive last week at .370/.452/.667. He also hit two home runs, scored six times and drove in five. And how can I not select Soto for the MVP award this week as he became the first rookie catcher ever to be selected to start an All-Star game for the National League?

First Base: Adam LaRoche | Pittsburgh Pirates - LaRoche had an impressive slugging percentage last week of 1.000 as five of his nine hits were extra base hits (two home runs, two doubles, and a triple). He had a batting average of .474, scored five times and drove in eight runs.

Second Base: Brandon Phillips | Cincinnati Reds - Two hitters deserved this award this week, but I am only giving it to Phillips, since snubbing ball players in en vogue lately. Ian Kinsler was a very close second place, but Phillips’ extra RBI’s were the icing on the cake. Phillips batted .481/.500/.667 with 4 runs scored, one home run, nine RBI, and two stolen bases.

Shortstop: J.J. Hardy | Milwaukee Brewers - It’s amazing when we have a week where Hanley Ramirez hits three home runs, drives in eight and scores seven times but isn’t even considered for this weekly MVP award! Hardy batted .600/.625/1.367 with eight runs scored, six home runs, 12 RBI, and a stolen base, and was arguably the most valuable fantasy baseball player last week.

Third Base: Alex Rodriguez | New York Yankees - ARod only had eight hits last week, but they all counted in a big way. He batted .333/.448/.750 with eight runs scored, three home runs, seven RBI, and three stolen bases.

Outfield: Cody Ross | Florida Marlins - Here’s another situation where excellence wasn’t good enough for a player to win the weekly MVP award. Matt Holliday belted three  homers, drove in 10, and stole three bases, but couldn’t hold a candle last week to Ross’ .500/.529/.813 with eight runs scored, two home runs, and 15 RBI.

Starting Pitcher: Roy Halladay | Toronto Blue Jays - Halladay beat up on the American League West last week earning wins over the Angels and the Mariners. He pitched 16 innings and struck out 13 while only walking one. His ERA was only 1.12 and his WHIP was 0.69.

Relief Pitcher: Brandon Morrow | Seattle Mariners - Morrow has slid into the closer’s role very nicely in Seattle. Last week he notched three saves, one win, and struck out five while only walking one in 4.1 innings of work. His ERA was perfect at 0.00 and his WHIP was 0.23.