Crooked Pitch

I’m way behind here on publishing the commentary from each selection in our slow mock draft. To refresh your memory, go back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2, and round 3.

• Round 4 : Pick 1(37) - @seniorcircuit - C.C. Sabathia - I was surprised and pleased to find Sabathia still on the board as my pick, for the beginning of the 4th round.  He was the 3rd pitcher taken overall behind Santana and Lincecum, which was different than the outcome of the poll on crookedpitch.com, asking who should be the first pitcher taken in drafts, found here. I have faith in him being a workhorse this season and settling into the role as ace of the Yankees, there shouldn’t be any need for him to worry about getting traded.  Sabathia will put up 18-20 wins, 3.40 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and well over 200 strikeouts.  I am also continuing my personal run of drafting players that are on brand new teams with huge contracts.
• Round 4 : Pick 2(38) - @jasoncollette - Alex Rios - I called him as a 30/30 guy for the Fanball magazine so I’m putting my money where my mouth is. Look at the difference last year once the Jays brought Gaston in and got rid of Dembo’s hitting instruction.
• Round 4 : Pick 3(39) - @dowdyism - Ichiro Suzuki -It had been all power, all the time for my team up to this point.  It was time to get some steals in the mix, and Ichiro is the perfect fit in the fourth round.  He has been a model of consistency since entering the league, and 100 runs and a high AVG will compliment his stolen base output quite nicely.
• Round 4 : Pick 4(40) - @therotofeed - Nate McClouth - After passing on the likes of Braun and Longoria during earlier rounds in favor of players with slightly longer fantasy track records, I went ahead and took Nate McLouth with my fourth pick.  I tend to try to take “boring” picks with my first three picks in a snake draft, looking for reliability above all. By the time I get to round four, though, it’s time to seek some upside. And I think McLouth will have an even better year than last year.
• Round 4 : Pick 5(41) - @sporer - Kevin Youkilis -Here is why I don’t think the 13 home run increase from Youk was a fluke: his walk rate fell by 3% and I believe a lot of that was him going for solid pitches that he ended up being able to do a lot with earlier in the count. Known as the Greek God of Walks, I think in past seasons he was waiting for the perfect pitch or just taking a walk. To wit, he had 15 home runs after a 1-0 count against just seven in 2007. I feel like another 25+ home run season rests on Youk’s shoulders as he decides whether or not he wants to take that approach again this season. As part of that lineup, his counting stats will be excellent as well. Throw in mixed eligibility at 1B/3B and I’m pleased to land him here in the 3rd.
• Round 4 : Pick 6(42) - @tommystv - Vladimir Guerrero -I’ll admit I’m an Angels fan, and I became an Angels fan because of Vlad. With that being said, there is no one in the last seven picks that I would value more than Vlad. If Sabathia or Lincecum would have fallen I may have gone pitcher and Ichiro I would have viewed as equal, and would have been happy to maybe make a solid move on steals. Could have gone Ordonez or maybe McCann, but I’m feling good about Vlad falling to the middle of the 4th. .300 and around 30 HRs, lock it up.
• Round 4 : Pick 7(43) - @xxldaddyo - Brian McCann -Ya gotta have a catcher (or two) so why not take the best hitting catcher in all of baseball? McCann cut down on his K’s in the 2H last year while increasing his walks. Forget the 23 HR and .301 BA of last year. I’ll pencil him in for 26 HR and .310 in ‘09.
• Round 4 : Pick 8(44) - @jefeboy - Rafael Furcal -Was considering 3 players at this spot — Youkilis as the best remaining 1B, McCann as the #1 C and Furcal as the best remaining SS. The choice was simplified by my opponents. Staying with the IF strategy, gotta love the potential for contributions in 4 categories from SS. Shandler loves him this year and I love Shandler.
• Round 4 : Pick 9(45) - @fakebaseball - Dan Haren -I’ll probably be accused of reaching, but I feel that my fourth-round selection, Dan Haren, stands a good chance of matching the fantasy value of–or even outperforming–Webb, Halladay, Hamels, and Peavy in ‘09. I believe Haren will match or exceed 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 8 K/9, with an impressive win total. It can be intimidating to go against the collective wisdom of average draft position when you are significantly more positive or more negative on a player, but it’s hard to win without taking risks.
• Round 4 : Pick 10(46) - @TheRoundtable - Brandon Webb -I won’t lie to you, this goes against my personal philosophy of not drafting pitching in the first five rounds, but I’m looking at value here. Webb has been going in the third round of most drafts, and getting him towards the end of the fourth is solid value. He’s going to be close to 20 wins, is consistently around a 3.20 ERA and keep his WHIP sub-1.25 (my threshold for top pitching). I just didn’t like the options available at some of the other positions as far as grabbing them here. There are others on my radar, but I think they’ll be around on the swing and in round six as well.
• Round 4 : Pick 11(47) - @Angels2717 - Roy Halladay -I am very happy to be able to get a solid pitcher in the late 4th round.  Halladay is one of those guys you love to have as your number one pitcher on a fantasy team. I like his high strikeout capability and 17+ win capability. Glad to be able to draft him at this point.
• Round 4 : Pick 12(48) - @crookedpitch - Russell Martin - If at all possible, I wanted to grab one of the big four catchers (McCann, Martin, Soto & Mauer). Martin’s ADP is 43.4, so this is a pretty good spot to grab him. McCann already went, so the run on catchers will shortly follow (most likely accentuated by my pick here). I actually like Martin’s fantasy value better than McCann’s. McCann has more pop, but Martin’s stolen base potential and multi-position eligibility make him a more valuable fantasy option.

Everyone has been screaming for rankings. I wanted to wait for a while, but I’m also tired of being harassed.

Remember that it’s December 30th, and this list will surely change by the time the season starts. Also note that every team has at least one catcher on this list, some teams two.

There are some catchers who have been left off of this list, most notably Jason Varitek and Pudge Rodriguez. These players won’t be added until they are picked up by a Major League club.

Here are the 2009 fantasy catcher rankings.

1. Russell Martin | Los Angeles Dodgers - He may not hit as many home runs or drive in as many as McCann and Soto, but he scores more runs and steals bases. His ability to contribute in five categories makes him the #1 choice here.
2. Brian McCann | Atlanta Braves - McCann tied for the lead amongst catchers in home runs, finished second in RBI, and was one of three backstops to bat over .300 last season. Expect more of the same in 2009.
3. Joe Mauer | Minnesota Twins - Mauer led all catchers with a .328 batting average last season and even though his home run total isn’t in double digits, he drives in runs like a fiend and scores more than any catcher out there.
4. Geovany Soto | Chicago Cubs - Won Rookie of the Year honors and the hearts of fantasy GM’s who took a shot on the unproven youngster in the 2008 draft. Don’t expect to get Soto cheap in ‘09 but do plan on him mashing balls again, and again, and again.
5. Ryan Doumit | Pittsburgh Pirates - Enjoyed a breakout season in 2008 and sits just outside of the elite catchers of this list. There is potential for Doumit to join them by the end of ‘09.
6. Victor Martinez | Cleveland Indians - It’s unusual to see Martinez this low on a ranking list, but injuries slowed the star last year. His power should return and opportunities to play at first base some could help keep him healthy.
7. Chris Iannetta | Colorado Rockies - Broke out to the tune of 18 home runs in only 333 at-bats. This young slugger could even improve his power production for 2009.
8. Bengie Molina | San Francisco Giants - Molina led all catchers with 95 RBI, something he’s always done well. He’ll be 35-years-old this year so be wary of his ability to reach 530 at-bats again, but expect the power production to remain.
9. A.J. Pierzynski | Chicago White Sox - This guy quietly hits 13-16 home runs and bats around .270 every year. Expect much of the same this season as Pierzynski is the model of consistency.
10. Mike Napoli | Los Angeles Angels - Hit a sick 20 home runs in only 227 at-bats last season. His second half was much better than his first half, so don’t pay for full season consistency on draft day. But, do imagine what he could do with 500+ at-bats.
11. Kelly Shoppach | Cleveland Indians - Filled in swimmingly for Martinez last season. If the Indians find him at-bats or make a trade, Shoppach could improve on his 2008 numbers.
12. Ramon Hernandez | Cincinnati Reds - Was driven out of Baltimore by a top prospect, but you can expect similar numbers in Cincy.
13. Kurt Suzuki | Oakland Athletics - In his first full season, Suzuki entrenched himself as the every day catcher. He may approach double digit home runs, but his true value is his better than most batting average.
14. Chris Snyder | Arizona Diamondbacks - Hit 16 home runs in 334 at-bats last season and has even more power potential. But, he needs to improve his .237 batting average to convince the team to stop platooning him.
15. Dioner Navarro | Tampa Bay Rays - It’s unfair to compare him to Joe Mauer, but he does seem like a cheaper knock off to the Twins catcher. Beware of a slight batting average dip due to his unusually high 2008 hit rate of 32.1%.
16. Yadier Molina | St. Louis Cardinals - Did a lot of fantasy GM’s proud as you don’t usually get a .304 hitter from the waiver wire. Expect Molina’s batting average to drop a little, but not by enough to stop enjoying him as a solid #2 option at catcher.
17. Miguel Olivo | Kansas City Royals - Love his 12 home runs in 306 at-bats last season. Hate his 26.8% strikeout rate and his 2.2% walk rate. He’s probably better left to AL-only leagues unless he finds consistency and earns extra at-bats.
18. Gerald Laird | Detroit Tigers - He’s finally going to be the only guy in Detroit after fighting for time in Texas. He improved his strikeout rate last season and saw a 50+ point batting average increase. Don’t expect another gain like that, but feel free to take a late round flier as Laird might continue to improve as he doesn’t have to look over his shoulder anymore.
19. Jorge Posada | New York Yankees - Posada is 37-years-old and coming off of a major medical procedure that kills most hitters power potential. With recent additions to the team he won’t be given many opportunities to DH either. Posada is a risky pick for 2009.
20. Jesus Flores | Washington Nationals - Flores strikes out too much and doesn’t walk enough. But, the Nats think he’s their catcher of the future. He does have some pop.
21. Rod Barajas | Toronto Blue Jays - Barajas is a 33-year-old journeyman who doesn’t offer much to fantasy owners at all. His 11 home runs don’t really make up for the .249 batting average. He might even end up in a platoon situation in 2009.
22. Brian Schneider | New York Mets - Schneider gets a majority of the at-bats for the Mets because of his defensive skills. Until they replace one of these five categories with defense, Schneider is pretty useless on your mixed-league team.
23. Matt Weiters | Baltimore Orioles - Weiters hit 27 home runs in his 437 at-bats at the Advanced-A and Double-A level last season. That was good enough for the O’s to bid farewell to Ramon Hernandez, practically giving the starting job to Weiters as a 23-year-old rookie.
24. Jason Kendall | Milwaukee Brewers - Kendall had three consecutive years of hitting above .320 and stealing more than 20 bases. Unfortunately those years were 1998 through 2000. Kendall’s only fantasy value comes from his 500 plus at-bats. At that’s not worth much.
25. Jarrod Saltalamacchia | Texas Rangers - Salty had fewer than 200 at-bats last season as a forearm injury slowed him. When he was healthy he didn’t show his top prospect stuff of old. With two top catching prospects in his rear view mirror, Saltalamacchia is too dangerous to run with as your #1 catcher.
26. John Baker | Florida Marlins - Baker was impressive last season in 197 at-bats and should enter Spring Training as the expected starting catcher. His .299 batting average, good strikeout to walk ratio, and good on-base skills could lead to a nice season. But don’t expect too much power production from him.
27. Jeff Clement | Seattle Mariners - Clement will be given every opportunity to be the M’s every day catcher even though he stunk it up after being called up from Triple-A. He has a ton of potential and you could do worse than he with a last round flier for your #2 catcher spot.
28. Carlos Ruiz | Philadelphia Phillies - Ruiz is sharing at-bats behind the plate. And until he figures out how to hit higher than .219, he’ll remain useless to the fantasy world.
29. Nick Hundley | San Diego Padres - Hundley has shown some pop in the minors hitting 20 home runs in 2007 at the Double-A level. But, he’s never had a decent batting average and he showed his inability to hit Major League pitching last season as he only batted .237.
30. J.R. Towles | Houston Astros - Towles was as touted of a prospect going into last season as Geovany Soto. Soto hit 23 home runs. Towles batted .137 and was sent back to the minors. Towles should be given the opportunity to be the Astros every day catcher in 2009, but his leash will be short.
31. Taylor Teagarden | Texas Rangers - In only 47 at-bats last year Teagarden hit six home runs and batted .319. He’s still behind Saltalamacchia on the depth chart going into Spring Training. But, if he wins the starting job, you’ll see his value skyrocket.
32. Kenji Johjima | Seattle Mariners - Johjima crashed and burned last season batting .227 in 379 at-bats, finally losing his job to Jeff Clement. While Clement is a highly touted prospect, he won’t be given a lot of rope to hang himself with. Johjima could slide back into the starting role at any time. Whether or not he produces, well that’s another story.

Here are the fantasy baseball rankings for the top ten catchers for the 2008 season. I will also list the predictions from the pre-season at the bottom of this post for comparison.

1. Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins - Mauer scored more runs and out hit every catcher in MLB. And the margin with which he did so was amazingly large. 98 runs | 9 HR | 85 RBI | 1 SB | .328
2. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves - Tough decision here as each of the top three catchers are statistically different, and studly. McCann’s home runs and RBI, plus his .301 batting average, almost warranted top billing, but Mauer was just too good. But you can argue for any of these three guys to top the list. 68 runs | 23 HR | 87 RBI | 5 SB | .301
3. Russell Martin, Los Angeles Dodgers - Martin is the most well rounder catcher, statistically speaking, of the whole bunch. Had he hit closer to .300, he’d easily be the number one ranked catcher. He also played 11 games at third base. That’ll help out his knees from time to time, and if 11 games is enough to qualify at a position in your fantasy league, Martin’s value rises. 87 runs | 13 HR | 69 RBI | 18 SB | .280
4. Geovany Soto, Chicago Cubs - Soto’s numbers are very similar to those of McCann’s. But his lower batting average keep him out of the elite three at the catcher position. 66 runs | 23 HR | 86 RBI | 0 SB | .285
5. Ryan Doumit, Pittsburgh Pirates - Emerged in 2008, maybe you can even call it a breakout. His numbers were fantastic and it’s fun to imagine how good they would have been if he’d received 100 more at-bats. 71 runs | 15 HR | 69 RBI | 2 SB | .318
6. Bengie Molina, San Francisco Giants - You gotta love his RBI production and his home run total and batting average were solid too. It’s too bad he didn’t score a lot. 46 runs | 16 HR | 95 RBI | 0 SB | .292
7. Kelly Shoppach, Cleveland Indians - He only got the opportunity to catch full time when Victor Martinez went down. But, he sure did make the most of his 352 at-bats. 67 runs | 21 HR | 55 RBI | 0 SB | .261
8. A.J. Pierzynski, Chicago White Sox - These are pretty good numbers for the eighth ranked catcher on this list. 66 runs | 13 HR | 60 RBI | 1 SB | .281
9. Chris Iannetta, Colorado Rockies - Iannetta finally lived up to his potential and had a break-out season. Remember that these numbers were produced from only 333 at-bats. 50 runs | 18 HR | 65 RBI | 0 SB | .264
10. Ramon Hernandez, Baltimore Orioles - Hernandez bounced back from a miserable 2007 season . He got his power stroke back, but it’d be nice if the O’s could drive him across the plate a bit more. 49 runs | 15 HR | 65 RBI | 0 SB | .257

Listed below are the pre-season rankings. You can see how great I predicted things or laugh at how far off I was.

2008 American League Fantasy Baseball Catcher Rankings

1. Victor Martinez | Cleveland Indians
2. Jorge Posada | New York Yankees
3. Joe Mauer | Minnesota Twins
4. Kenji Johjima | Seattle Mariners
5. Jarrod Saltalamacchia | Texas Rangers
6. Ivan Rodriguez | Detroit Tigers
7. Jason Varitek | Boston Red Sox
8. Ramon Hernandez | Baltimore Orioles
9. A.J. Pierzynski | Chicago White Sox
10. John Buck | Kansas City Royals
11. Kurt Suzuki | Oakland Athletics
12. Mike Napoli | Los Angeles Angels
13. Dioner Navarro | Tampa Bay Rays
14. Gregg Zaun | Toronto Blue Jays
15. Miguel Olivo | Kansas City Royals
16. Gerald Laird | Texas Rangers
17. Mike Redmond | Minnesota Twins
18. Jeff Mathis | Los Angeles Angels
19. Kelly Shoppach | Cleveland Indians

2008 National League Fantasy Baseball Catcher Rankings

1. Russell Martin | Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Brian McCann | Atlanta Braves
3. Bengie Molina | San Francisco Giants
4. Carlos Ruiz | Philadephia Phillies
5. Johnny Estrada | FA
6. Ronny Paulino | Pittsburgh Pirates
7. Paul LoDuca | Washington Nationals
8. Geovany Soto | Chicago Cubs
9. David Ross | Cincinnati Reds
10. J.R.Towels | Houston Astros
11. Michael Barrett | San Diego Padres
12. Chris Snyder | Arizona Diamondbacks
13. Ryan Doumit | Pittsburgh Pirates
14. Yorvit Torreabla | Colorado Rockies
15. Yadier Molina | St. Louis Cardinals
16. Jason Kendall | Milwaukee Brewers
17. Brian Schneider |New York Mets
18. Josh Bard | San Diego Padres
19. Javier Valentin | Cincinnati Reds
20. Chris Iannetta | Colorado Rockies
21. Ramon Castro | New York Mets
22. Miguel Montero | Arizona Diamondbacks
23. Jesus Flores | Washington Nationals

Catcher: Russell Martin | Los Angeles Dodgers - Geovany Soto and his 16 bombs got the All-Star starting job for the NL, while stud Brian McCann barely got to play even though his numbers merited the role of NL starter as well. Russell martin was sandwiched in between them for the game. And even though he has fewer home runs than both catchers, and a lower batting average than McCann, Martin is the first half, fantasy MVP due to his stolen base output. He swiped 10 bags and proved that cathcers can run a bit. His value is in the fact that he produces in every fantasy category, and with numbers like .294/.394/.436 with 49 runs, 10 home runs, 45 RBI, and 10 stolen bases, he produces well.

First Base: Lance Berkman | Houston Astros - Ryan Howard may have 28 home runs, but he’s not even close to being as valuable of a fantasy first baseman as Berkman is. Berkman batted .347/.443/.653 with 79 runs, 22 home runs, 73 RBI, and 15 stolen bases in the first half of 2008. He may even have been the most valuable player in the entire fantasy baseball universe.

Second Base: Ian Kinsler | Texas Rangers - In April, if you had told me that Chase Utley would have 25 home runs at the All-Star break and wouldn’t be the most valuable fantasy baseball second baseman, I would have called the insane asylum and booked your room. It’s true though. Kinsler topped Utley in batting average, runs scored, and stolen bases, and isn’t too far behind in the RBI category. Kinsler’s first half numbers were .337/.397/.548 with 84 runs scored, 14 home runs, 58 RBI, and 23 stolen bases.

Shortstop: Hanley Ramirez | Florida Marlins - Ramirez sure has proven worthy of first round consideration at draft time this past off-season. He put up first half numbers of .311/.391/.566 with 80 runs scored, 23 home runs, 45 RBI, and 23 stolen bases and did that all without Miguel Cabrera hitting in the Marlins lineup with him. The only shortstop who can put up numbers like Hanley is playing third base for the Yankees.

Third Base: Chipper Jones | Atlanta Braves - Although he’s no longer flirting with a .400 batting average, Jones still tearing up National League pitching and leading the league in batting average . Jones is batting .376/.472/.614 with 56 runs scored, 18 home runs, 51 RBI, and two stolen bases. As long as Jones stays healthy, expect monster production from him to continue in the second half.

Outfield: Josh Hamilton | Texas Rangers - You don’t even have to consider his 28 home run, first round home run derby spectacle to consider what Hamilton is doing this season as spectacular. He’s leading MLB in RBI as he approached 100 RBI in the first half alone, and is just an all around good story for baseball. His first half numbers were .310/.367/.552 with 60 runs scored, 21 home runs, 95 RBI, and even seven stolen bases. Wherever you drafted this guy, you absolutely stole him.

Starting Pitcher: Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants - Picking a first half MVP from the great performers from the starting pitching pool, was very difficult. Cliff Lee, Edison Volquez, Roy Halladay, and even Justin Duchscherer deserved consideration. Lincecum was chosen as he second in the league in strikeouts, tied for third in wins, and is an ERA stud pitching for what was supposed to be a terrible team. His first half line was 11-2 with a 2.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 135 strikeouts and 47 walks in 129.2 innings of work.

Relief Pitcher: Francisco Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels - Rodriguez’ closest competitor in the saves category is 10 saves away, and his 38 saves leads MLB by a long shot. He also has a 2.36 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP to go along with those saves. In 42 innings pitched, Rodriguez struck out 41 and walked 26.