Crooked Pitch

We’re through round nine now. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7, and round 8.

• Round 9 : Pick 1(97) - @crookedpitch - Ryan Zimmerman - This is a risky pick here. He missed two months with a shoulder injury last season, and I’m looking for him to prove that he’s healed. His five home runs in the final month of the season and his .306 second half batting average tell me he’s ready to crush it in ‘09. At 24-years-old Zimmerman could re-emerge as a 20+ homer guy with a .300 average.
• Round 9 : Pick 2(98) - @Angels2717 - Michael Young - I like Young a lot and as the rounds go by, certain positions’ value considerably decreases. One of them is the shortstop position.  If you havent taken one of the top guy: Reyes, Rollins, etc. you got to take someone soon before your left with an Erick Aybar kind of player. He’ll be fine for this round.
• Round 9 : Pick 3(99) - @TheRoundtable - Ryan Doumit - Complete upside pick. Doumit was one of the few bright spots by the end of the season for the Pirates. For a team that was miserable, they produced solid fantasy numbers with Nady, Bay, McLouth, and Doumit. Doumit’s numbers didn’t drop off toward the second half. Normally, I don’t draft catchers this early, but with needing two, I felt that this was the right spot to grab one.
• Round 9 : Pick 4(100) - @fakebaseball - Francisco Rodriguez - Like many others who’ve played the game for a long time, I’m a believer in drafting closers later in the draft (and even punting closers altogether in head-to-head leagues). That said, when Rodriguez was still available in the 9th round, by this point the potential reward made this a pick worth making. Taking him in rounds 5 or 6 (where he’s typically been going) means you’re overpaying for ‘08. By round 9, he could return good value even with a less impressive ‘09. Yes, his peripherals aren’t what they once were, and yes, he’ll have Putz possibly grabbing some saves this year. But he’s also now pitching in the NL–no DH–and he’ll also be facing Florida, Atlanta, and Washington regularly.
• Round 9 : Pick 5(101) - @jefeboy - Raul Ibanez - A steady performer in a new ballpark that’s good for hitters. I’ll take that, in the 9th round. Supports my decision to wait on OF’s. I need to fill out the roster with 20HR guys like him.
• Round 9 : Pick 6(102) - @xxldaddyo - Jon Lester - The Second Half of 2008 says it all for Lester: 2.92 ERA, 1.19 WHIP 3.1:1 K:BB ratio. Along the way he became a great ground ball pitcher, and even threw a no-hitter!
• Round 9 : Pick 7(103) - @tommystv - Carlos Zambrano - Dominate at times, crazy at times. I’ll take the risk, the Cubbies have a good Offense so wins will come even when he doesn’t dominate. Note: Pitcher run continuing.
• Round 9 : Pick 8(104) - @sporer - Mariano Rivera - Wow, three pitchers in a row for me… that’s simply unheard of, but all three rate among my favorites to roster. Everyone keeps waiting for the other shoe to drop with Rivera, but he continually defies the odds. If he does just fall off a cliff performance-wise, it’ll be detrimental to all his fantasy owners, but there is nothing within his skills to suggest that’s on the horizon. He could feasibly have another 40-45 save season this year.
• Round 9 : Pick 9(105) - @therotofeed - Brad Lidge - He was the game’s most dominant closer last year, and he’s probably the only one with truly elite k/9 left on the board. I’d rather be taking batters at this point, but I can’t pass on best-in-categories. Let’s hope the Phillies stay strong and the Curse of Pujols stays away for another year.
• Round 9 : Pick 10(106) - @dowdyism - Jayson Werth - I don’t know what this “Twitter” thing is or how some of these “people” say that Jason Werth was “their pick”. I don’t know what they are talking about, but I promise I’m going to figure this internet thing out one day. In all seriousness, Werth is becoming a popular choice in mock drafts. He broke through last season with 24 HR and 20 SB in 482 PA, and a new contract should break his platoon status, thus the rise in ADP. I think he is good for another 20/20 season as a floor, and slots in nicely as my fourth outfielder.
• Round 9 : Pick 11(107) - @jasoncollette - Jose Valverde - Valverde has incredible skills as a closer and could be a top three guy if he cuts down on his homers. He knocked 6% of his FB rate last year but his HR/FB spike negated those gains.
• Round 9 : Pick 12(108) - @seniorcircuit - Brad Hawpe - I predict Hawpe to hopefully stay healthy and return more to his 2007 numbers. And if you draft him pray that he is not traded from Colorado. The lineup he is in is weaker with the loss of Holliday but Hawpe can rebound to put up a season of 80/27/95/.290 in 2009.

I had a lot of fun last night participating in my first real draft of the year over at Mock Draft Central. The league is a 12 team roto league called Battle of the Fantasy Gods. Here’s how I did drafting from the 12th spot at building my 23-man roster. Remember that we have no bench spots, so all of these guys will start for me each week.

I also spent the night on twitter broadcasting my thoughts, picks, and asking for opinions. Thanks to @fakebaseball, @tmo119, @piraterev, @xxldaddyo, and @angels2717 for hanging out, listening and not laughing at all of my picks. Follow these guys on twitter as well as keep up with my updates too at @crookedpitch.

1. Catcher: Joe Mauer - I grabbed Mauer in the 5th round after Soto, Martin and McCann went earlier. I’m looking forward to his .320+ batting average this season and hope he’ll approach triple digit runs scored and double digit home runs.
2. Catcher: Ryan Doumit - I wasn’t expecting to grab another catcher of this quality, but I did so in the 11th round and can safely say that I have the best catcher tandem in the league. I’m not sure if Doumit will hit over .300 again due to his high hit rate, but .280 or so would be great. Especially if he can approach 20 dingers.
3. First Base: Mark Teixeira - Teixeira was my 2nd round pick at #13 and I expect big things from him hitting in that Yankee lineup.
4. Second Base: Brandon Phillips - I took Phillips in the 3rd round as I felt there was a huge drop off in talent at the second base position after him. I love the power / speed combo.
5. Short Stop: Jimmy Rollins - Rollins was my first round pick and I feel very fortunate that he fell to me at the #12 pick. His speed / power combo also excites me.
6. Third Base: Alex Gordon - At around the 5th round I decided to wait a while for a third baseman. I waited until the 14th round and grabbed Alex Gordon. I’d love it if he hit 20 home runs this season, but it’ll more likely be in the high teens. He could also steal double digit bases for me and since his walk rate is rising, and his strikeout rate is dropping, I’d love to see his batting average climb a bit too.
7. Outfield: Nick Markakis - I took Markakis in the 4th round and I’m looking for triple digit runs scored, 20+ home runs, 10+ stolen bases, and a batting average above .300. Shouldn’t everyone’s standards for a 4th round pick be so high?
8. Outfield: Chris Young - My 8th round pick was Young and I’m going to need my 2008 .300 hitters to stay above .300 to supplement Young’s .250 average. But Young’s 20+ home runs and hopefully 20+ stolen bases will be nice.
9. Outfield: Jay Bruce - In 413 at-bats Bruce hit 21 home runs. So, in 2009, his first full season, I’m hoping for 30+ home runs. The 90-100 RBI that would come with that would be nice for a 10th round pick.
10. Outfield: Nick Swisher - My 17th round pick isn’t even going to get full time at-bats on his new team. I’m hoping that Swisher gets traded from the Yankees or some portion of the log jam there does, or this pick is a bad one.
11. Outfield: Adam Lind - Lind was a 19th round pick to finish out my outfield. I’d love to see him prove that 2007 was an outlier and that the rest of his career at a .300+ batting average is the norm. 20+ home runs would be a gift to me as well.
12. Middle Infielder: Howie Kendrick - Kendrick is a big injury risk, I know this. But, if healthy, he could hit above .300, blast 10 home runs and steal 20 bases. That’s a big if. Plus I got him for a value price in the 13th round at pick #156 when he had an ADP of 130.
13. Corner Infielder: Billy Butler -Two thirds of my corner infield spots play for Kansas City. Am I screwed or what? I hope that Butler can hit north of .290 and come close to 20 home runs in 2009, which wouldn’t be bad for a 20th round pick.
14. Utility: Jason Bartlett - With my last pick of the draft (23rd round) I wanted some more speed. I grabbed Bartlett and hope he’ll reach 20 stolen bases and not hurt me anywhere else.
15. Pitcher: Jonathan Papelbon - I took Paps in the 6th round and he wasn’t the first reliever selected, Francisco Rodriguez went in the 5th. He’s going to notch a lot of saves pitching for the Red Sox. Which I am going ot need since I did not draft another closer.
16. Pitcher: Josh Beckett - Beckett was my 7th round pick and I hope he’ll rebound in 2009 to get his ERA below 4.00 and bring his win total back up.
17. Pitcher:  Scott Kazmir - After Beckett, I wasn’t going to take another pitcher so early. But, when Kazmir was still available at my 9th round pick (#108) I had to jump on him since his ADP was 68. In theory, that’s 6th round talent in the 9th round. Score!
18. Pitcher: Rich Harden - Wish list for my 12th round pick: 1)Please stay healthy! 2)Keep your ERA close to 3.00. 3)Please stay healthy! 4)10+ K/9 ratio would be fantastic. 5)Did I mention please stay healthy?
19. Pitcher: Gavin Floyd -  I’m not expecting 17 wins again from my 15th round draft pick. But 12 wins with 150 strikeouts and a 4.00 ERA would be nice.
20. Pitcher: Matt Garza - I grabbed Garza in the 16th round and expect similar numbers to Floyd from him; 12 wins, 150 strikeouts, sub 4.00 ERA.
21. Pitcher: Max Scherzer - I reached a little bit for my 18th round pick here. I’m hoping for Scherzer to stay in the rotation all season and continue his 10+ K/9 ratio pace.
22. Pitcher: Manny Parra - Parra is my 21st round pick and if I get 10 wins from him and 135 strikeouts with an ERA around 4.00, I’d be happy.
23. Pitcher: Mark Buehrle - 10 Wins, 4.00 ERA, 130 strikeouts. That’s all I want from this 22nd round pick.

So, there you go. How’d I do?

What was my best pick? Worst one?

Here are a few links to the results of the draft:

• Draft Grid
• Team Rosters
• Draft Results

Everyone has been screaming for rankings. I wanted to wait for a while, but I’m also tired of being harassed.

Remember that it’s December 30th, and this list will surely change by the time the season starts. Also note that every team has at least one catcher on this list, some teams two.

There are some catchers who have been left off of this list, most notably Jason Varitek and Pudge Rodriguez. These players won’t be added until they are picked up by a Major League club.

Here are the 2009 fantasy catcher rankings.

1. Russell Martin | Los Angeles Dodgers - He may not hit as many home runs or drive in as many as McCann and Soto, but he scores more runs and steals bases. His ability to contribute in five categories makes him the #1 choice here.
2. Brian McCann | Atlanta Braves - McCann tied for the lead amongst catchers in home runs, finished second in RBI, and was one of three backstops to bat over .300 last season. Expect more of the same in 2009.
3. Joe Mauer | Minnesota Twins - Mauer led all catchers with a .328 batting average last season and even though his home run total isn’t in double digits, he drives in runs like a fiend and scores more than any catcher out there.
4. Geovany Soto | Chicago Cubs - Won Rookie of the Year honors and the hearts of fantasy GM’s who took a shot on the unproven youngster in the 2008 draft. Don’t expect to get Soto cheap in ‘09 but do plan on him mashing balls again, and again, and again.
5. Ryan Doumit | Pittsburgh Pirates - Enjoyed a breakout season in 2008 and sits just outside of the elite catchers of this list. There is potential for Doumit to join them by the end of ‘09.
6. Victor Martinez | Cleveland Indians - It’s unusual to see Martinez this low on a ranking list, but injuries slowed the star last year. His power should return and opportunities to play at first base some could help keep him healthy.
7. Chris Iannetta | Colorado Rockies - Broke out to the tune of 18 home runs in only 333 at-bats. This young slugger could even improve his power production for 2009.
8. Bengie Molina | San Francisco Giants - Molina led all catchers with 95 RBI, something he’s always done well. He’ll be 35-years-old this year so be wary of his ability to reach 530 at-bats again, but expect the power production to remain.
9. A.J. Pierzynski | Chicago White Sox - This guy quietly hits 13-16 home runs and bats around .270 every year. Expect much of the same this season as Pierzynski is the model of consistency.
10. Mike Napoli | Los Angeles Angels - Hit a sick 20 home runs in only 227 at-bats last season. His second half was much better than his first half, so don’t pay for full season consistency on draft day. But, do imagine what he could do with 500+ at-bats.
11. Kelly Shoppach | Cleveland Indians - Filled in swimmingly for Martinez last season. If the Indians find him at-bats or make a trade, Shoppach could improve on his 2008 numbers.
12. Ramon Hernandez | Cincinnati Reds - Was driven out of Baltimore by a top prospect, but you can expect similar numbers in Cincy.
13. Kurt Suzuki | Oakland Athletics - In his first full season, Suzuki entrenched himself as the every day catcher. He may approach double digit home runs, but his true value is his better than most batting average.
14. Chris Snyder | Arizona Diamondbacks - Hit 16 home runs in 334 at-bats last season and has even more power potential. But, he needs to improve his .237 batting average to convince the team to stop platooning him.
15. Dioner Navarro | Tampa Bay Rays - It’s unfair to compare him to Joe Mauer, but he does seem like a cheaper knock off to the Twins catcher. Beware of a slight batting average dip due to his unusually high 2008 hit rate of 32.1%.
16. Yadier Molina | St. Louis Cardinals - Did a lot of fantasy GM’s proud as you don’t usually get a .304 hitter from the waiver wire. Expect Molina’s batting average to drop a little, but not by enough to stop enjoying him as a solid #2 option at catcher.
17. Miguel Olivo | Kansas City Royals - Love his 12 home runs in 306 at-bats last season. Hate his 26.8% strikeout rate and his 2.2% walk rate. He’s probably better left to AL-only leagues unless he finds consistency and earns extra at-bats.
18. Gerald Laird | Detroit Tigers - He’s finally going to be the only guy in Detroit after fighting for time in Texas. He improved his strikeout rate last season and saw a 50+ point batting average increase. Don’t expect another gain like that, but feel free to take a late round flier as Laird might continue to improve as he doesn’t have to look over his shoulder anymore.
19. Jorge Posada | New York Yankees - Posada is 37-years-old and coming off of a major medical procedure that kills most hitters power potential. With recent additions to the team he won’t be given many opportunities to DH either. Posada is a risky pick for 2009.
20. Jesus Flores | Washington Nationals - Flores strikes out too much and doesn’t walk enough. But, the Nats think he’s their catcher of the future. He does have some pop.
21. Rod Barajas | Toronto Blue Jays - Barajas is a 33-year-old journeyman who doesn’t offer much to fantasy owners at all. His 11 home runs don’t really make up for the .249 batting average. He might even end up in a platoon situation in 2009.
22. Brian Schneider | New York Mets - Schneider gets a majority of the at-bats for the Mets because of his defensive skills. Until they replace one of these five categories with defense, Schneider is pretty useless on your mixed-league team.
23. Matt Weiters | Baltimore Orioles - Weiters hit 27 home runs in his 437 at-bats at the Advanced-A and Double-A level last season. That was good enough for the O’s to bid farewell to Ramon Hernandez, practically giving the starting job to Weiters as a 23-year-old rookie.
24. Jason Kendall | Milwaukee Brewers - Kendall had three consecutive years of hitting above .320 and stealing more than 20 bases. Unfortunately those years were 1998 through 2000. Kendall’s only fantasy value comes from his 500 plus at-bats. At that’s not worth much.
25. Jarrod Saltalamacchia | Texas Rangers - Salty had fewer than 200 at-bats last season as a forearm injury slowed him. When he was healthy he didn’t show his top prospect stuff of old. With two top catching prospects in his rear view mirror, Saltalamacchia is too dangerous to run with as your #1 catcher.
26. John Baker | Florida Marlins - Baker was impressive last season in 197 at-bats and should enter Spring Training as the expected starting catcher. His .299 batting average, good strikeout to walk ratio, and good on-base skills could lead to a nice season. But don’t expect too much power production from him.
27. Jeff Clement | Seattle Mariners - Clement will be given every opportunity to be the M’s every day catcher even though he stunk it up after being called up from Triple-A. He has a ton of potential and you could do worse than he with a last round flier for your #2 catcher spot.
28. Carlos Ruiz | Philadelphia Phillies - Ruiz is sharing at-bats behind the plate. And until he figures out how to hit higher than .219, he’ll remain useless to the fantasy world.
29. Nick Hundley | San Diego Padres - Hundley has shown some pop in the minors hitting 20 home runs in 2007 at the Double-A level. But, he’s never had a decent batting average and he showed his inability to hit Major League pitching last season as he only batted .237.
30. J.R. Towles | Houston Astros - Towles was as touted of a prospect going into last season as Geovany Soto. Soto hit 23 home runs. Towles batted .137 and was sent back to the minors. Towles should be given the opportunity to be the Astros every day catcher in 2009, but his leash will be short.
31. Taylor Teagarden | Texas Rangers - In only 47 at-bats last year Teagarden hit six home runs and batted .319. He’s still behind Saltalamacchia on the depth chart going into Spring Training. But, if he wins the starting job, you’ll see his value skyrocket.
32. Kenji Johjima | Seattle Mariners - Johjima crashed and burned last season batting .227 in 379 at-bats, finally losing his job to Jeff Clement. While Clement is a highly touted prospect, he won’t be given a lot of rope to hang himself with. Johjima could slide back into the starting role at any time. Whether or not he produces, well that’s another story.

Here are the fantasy baseball rankings for the top ten catchers for the 2008 season. I will also list the predictions from the pre-season at the bottom of this post for comparison.

1. Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins - Mauer scored more runs and out hit every catcher in MLB. And the margin with which he did so was amazingly large. 98 runs | 9 HR | 85 RBI | 1 SB | .328
2. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves - Tough decision here as each of the top three catchers are statistically different, and studly. McCann’s home runs and RBI, plus his .301 batting average, almost warranted top billing, but Mauer was just too good. But you can argue for any of these three guys to top the list. 68 runs | 23 HR | 87 RBI | 5 SB | .301
3. Russell Martin, Los Angeles Dodgers - Martin is the most well rounder catcher, statistically speaking, of the whole bunch. Had he hit closer to .300, he’d easily be the number one ranked catcher. He also played 11 games at third base. That’ll help out his knees from time to time, and if 11 games is enough to qualify at a position in your fantasy league, Martin’s value rises. 87 runs | 13 HR | 69 RBI | 18 SB | .280
4. Geovany Soto, Chicago Cubs - Soto’s numbers are very similar to those of McCann’s. But his lower batting average keep him out of the elite three at the catcher position. 66 runs | 23 HR | 86 RBI | 0 SB | .285
5. Ryan Doumit, Pittsburgh Pirates - Emerged in 2008, maybe you can even call it a breakout. His numbers were fantastic and it’s fun to imagine how good they would have been if he’d received 100 more at-bats. 71 runs | 15 HR | 69 RBI | 2 SB | .318
6. Bengie Molina, San Francisco Giants - You gotta love his RBI production and his home run total and batting average were solid too. It’s too bad he didn’t score a lot. 46 runs | 16 HR | 95 RBI | 0 SB | .292
7. Kelly Shoppach, Cleveland Indians - He only got the opportunity to catch full time when Victor Martinez went down. But, he sure did make the most of his 352 at-bats. 67 runs | 21 HR | 55 RBI | 0 SB | .261
8. A.J. Pierzynski, Chicago White Sox - These are pretty good numbers for the eighth ranked catcher on this list. 66 runs | 13 HR | 60 RBI | 1 SB | .281
9. Chris Iannetta, Colorado Rockies - Iannetta finally lived up to his potential and had a break-out season. Remember that these numbers were produced from only 333 at-bats. 50 runs | 18 HR | 65 RBI | 0 SB | .264
10. Ramon Hernandez, Baltimore Orioles - Hernandez bounced back from a miserable 2007 season . He got his power stroke back, but it’d be nice if the O’s could drive him across the plate a bit more. 49 runs | 15 HR | 65 RBI | 0 SB | .257

Listed below are the pre-season rankings. You can see how great I predicted things or laugh at how far off I was.

2008 American League Fantasy Baseball Catcher Rankings

1. Victor Martinez | Cleveland Indians
2. Jorge Posada | New York Yankees
3. Joe Mauer | Minnesota Twins
4. Kenji Johjima | Seattle Mariners
5. Jarrod Saltalamacchia | Texas Rangers
6. Ivan Rodriguez | Detroit Tigers
7. Jason Varitek | Boston Red Sox
8. Ramon Hernandez | Baltimore Orioles
9. A.J. Pierzynski | Chicago White Sox
10. John Buck | Kansas City Royals
11. Kurt Suzuki | Oakland Athletics
12. Mike Napoli | Los Angeles Angels
13. Dioner Navarro | Tampa Bay Rays
14. Gregg Zaun | Toronto Blue Jays
15. Miguel Olivo | Kansas City Royals
16. Gerald Laird | Texas Rangers
17. Mike Redmond | Minnesota Twins
18. Jeff Mathis | Los Angeles Angels
19. Kelly Shoppach | Cleveland Indians

2008 National League Fantasy Baseball Catcher Rankings

1. Russell Martin | Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Brian McCann | Atlanta Braves
3. Bengie Molina | San Francisco Giants
4. Carlos Ruiz | Philadephia Phillies
5. Johnny Estrada | FA
6. Ronny Paulino | Pittsburgh Pirates
7. Paul LoDuca | Washington Nationals
8. Geovany Soto | Chicago Cubs
9. David Ross | Cincinnati Reds
10. J.R.Towels | Houston Astros
11. Michael Barrett | San Diego Padres
12. Chris Snyder | Arizona Diamondbacks
13. Ryan Doumit | Pittsburgh Pirates
14. Yorvit Torreabla | Colorado Rockies
15. Yadier Molina | St. Louis Cardinals
16. Jason Kendall | Milwaukee Brewers
17. Brian Schneider |New York Mets
18. Josh Bard | San Diego Padres
19. Javier Valentin | Cincinnati Reds
20. Chris Iannetta | Colorado Rockies
21. Ramon Castro | New York Mets
22. Miguel Montero | Arizona Diamondbacks
23. Jesus Flores | Washington Nationals

This was a slow week for great pickups. Most of the players moving up in percent owned are not worth pickups or minor leaguers with a possible call-up. As always I will try to supply one from each of the following positions at my weekly review here on Crooked Pitch (C, CI, MI, OF, SP and RP) I will include there current availability which may have changed since my initial review.

C - None - I suggested Ryan Doumit this week, but his ownership is at 73% now so he is likely gone by now. If he is still available he is a great backup and good enough to be a starter. If you have a 2 catcher league then he is a must own. My guess he is rostered now in most active leagues though. He also has OF eligibility, but he is not a great play there.

CI - Eric Chavez - As I said when I reviewed him: Just don’t expect him to last very long. He seems to be able to come back from these injuries OK and has been playing well since his return. That included his first homer on Friday. If you need a fill in or some power out of your 3B you can use Chavez until he surely gets hurt again. He is the Mark Prior of 3B.

He is only owned in 35% of CBS leagues.

MI - Yuniesky Betancourt - Unlike my previous MI pickups Betancourt has little pop and little speed. He will get a few homers and a few steals, but never enough to be a full time fantasy player. His average is strong though and he and get a few counting stats so he is a good backup in leagues with a larger bench.

He is only owned in 43% of CBS leagues.

OF - Alexei Ramirez - He is still working toward a full time roll, but the starts are coming. He has shown 20 homer potential in Cuba. If he can control the starting job he is a must pickup and I would put in a claim now. He has 2B, SS and OF eligibility so you can work him all around your lineup as you need him.

He is only owned in 36% of CBS leagues.

SP - Manny Parra - He had another good game since my review which gives him 4 out of 5. He is starting to look like the pitcher many expected this season. He is not quite the talent of a Gallardo, but should getting picked up for most leagues. He should at the least get strong K numbers for you.

He is owned in 52% of leagues.

RP - Mike Gonzalez - How fluid is the closer position. I could write a reliever pickup almost every week for Atlanta alone. Gonzalez is on his minor league rehab and showing no problems so far. Soriano is already taking days off for his elbow. The team can not seem to find the problem with Soriano and will be quick o move to Gonzalez if he can prove his health. He is a K per inning pitcher so expect him to do well again.

He is only owned in 5% as of this morning on CBS.