Crooked Pitch

I’m still catching up here on publishing the commentary from each selection in our slow mock draft. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, and round 5.

• Round 6 : Pick 1(61) - @seniorcircuit - Geovany Soto - After the elite catchers were off the board I was surprised that Soto was still there for me. I don’t mind taking a catcher early, especially in 2 catcher leagues. Who even started the 2 catcher policy? I can see Soto make a slight regression as pitchers get used to seeing him but will still put up quality numbers from the catchers spot.  I project Soto at 70/22/85/.275
• Round 6 : Pick 2(62) - @jasoncollette - Chris Davis - This was going to be Votto’s spot but alas, someone loves him more than I do. I saw Davis go in the 5th round of the MLB expert draft I’m doing and at this rate,  he’s going to go in a 4th round by March. He will hit behind Kinsler, Young, Hamilton, and Cruz so there is plenty of potential for 35 homers, 100+ RBI, but anything over .265 is a bonus.
• Round 6 : Pick 3(63) - @dowdyism - Stephen Drew -He has the bloodlines, and 2008 saw the breakout of Stephen Drew. I was looking for either Drew or Geovany Soto on the turn, and once Soto was gone, it was an easy decision.  I missed out on the 2B run, so I wanted to be sure to get good production from SS. Last years numbers are a good baseline on what I expect in 2009.
• Round 6 : Pick 4(64) - @therotofeed - Hunter Pence - I think this is the year before the breakout year for Pence, which should still come out rather nicely. I’m guessing he won’t be as much of a feast and famine guy this year and I’m hunting for 90/30/90.
• Round 6 : Pick 5(65) - @sporer - Robinson Cano -I was ready to take Cano when I took Granderson so I’m pleased to see him fall another round to me. In a tough season, he still put a pretty usable line at second base. I expect a much better season in the area of 2007’s breakout campaign. The lineup in New York is still excellent meaning the R & RBI numbers will be plentiful and he should have a better batting average (nearing .300) if he can avoid hitting .242 for a half as in 2008.  I’m predicting a bounce back season for Cano and I’m happy to get him in the 6th.
• Round 6 : Pick 6(66) - @tommystv - Shane Victorino - Victorino was the last top 50 player I had on my board still remaining. Although I do watch for value players slipping I like to justify a need before I pull the trigger. I needed to address steals at some point and this is a value you pick almost 3 rds beyond where he skill set justified him going. I’d love to see that little bit of pop he had last year continue.
• Round 6 : Pick 7(67) - @xxldaddyo - Cliff Lee -I already took the best Catcher in baseball (Brian McCann) in the 4th Round so why not pare him up with the best Starting Pitcher in baseball last year: AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee. Lee’s breakout year reminds me eerily of Chris Carpenters breakout season in 2004. Both were 29 when they came into their own and while it may not be reasonable to expect Lee to match last years SICK numbers, if he does 90% of that? I’d be a happy man.
• Round6 : Pick 8(68) - @jefeboy - Carlos Delgado -At this point I just needed power, and chose Delgado over Dunn because I think their HR totals will be in the same ballpark but Delgado should hurt my BA less.
• Round 6 : Pick 9(69) - @fakebaseball - Bobby Abreu -My pick of Bobby Abreu is an example of going with your rankings even though you dislike the player, and there are sexier picks on the board ahead of him. I have .285/16-18 HR/20 SB penciled in for Abreu, with a goodly amount of runs driven in and scored, because chances are wherever he lands (Cincinnati, perhaps?), he’ll be put in the middle of the order (regardless of whether or not he deserves it at this stage of his career). I fully recognize he’s a risk because he’s getting to the age where a precipitous decline can happen at any time, but I’ll take the risk, and the SBs, so I won’t have to suffer with “cheap speed” options later.
• Round 6 : Pick 10(70) - @TheRoundtable - Magglio Ordonez - I’m actually kicking myself because I missed the run on second basemen, so decided to fill in the outfield with who I feel is best available there at this point. The other positions seem relatively similar across the board over the next few players. Ordonez’s power numbers might be slightly down, but since his two-year injury run, he’s been healthy and providing good numbers for that Tigers offense. This is a guy that I have ranked in my top-50 (granted the end of it) that I was able to grab with pick 70.
• Round 6 : Pick 11(71) - @Angels2717 - Joe Nathan -Some might not think of taking Nathan as the first overall closer. But I believe this year, he will prove he is one of the best is not the best at his position. He has one of the lowest ERA’s of closers and is almost perfect on save oppurtunities. He has been very consistent throughout the past couple of years. No, he might not be the highest strikeout guy, but you don’t take closers just for their strikeouts.
• Round 6 : Pick 12(72) - @crookedpitch - Ryan Ludwick - I don’t expect Ludwick to approach a .300 batting average again in 2009. However, I do feel that 30 homers and 100 RBI are a distinct possibility. How could I pass up those numbers in the 6th round? Plus, it does sort of fit in with my power hitters theme that I’ve got going on.

Today’s pitch count is 5.

1. Bill Center of the Union-Tribune says that the San Diego Padres are stacked as an organization at third base. He gives some good info on 3B prospects for you guys in deep keeper leagues and leagues that use minor leaguers. He also talks about the injury to Kevin Kouzmanoff and how that’ll effect Chase Headley.
2. By trading Garrett Olson, the Baltimore Orioles have created a long list of potential rotation fillers. This reminds me of one of my favorite quotes from the 1989 classic baseball movie “Major League”
   

   Board Member 1: I’ve never heard of half of these guys and the ones I do know are way past their prime.
   Charlie Donovan: Most of these guys never had a prime.
   Board Member 2: This guy here is dead.
   Rachel Phelps: Cross him off then.

3. Upon being traded to the Orioles, Felix Pie said that he is looking forward to being able to play “every day”. I don’t see that happening, and neither do Baltimore Sun reporters Jeff Zrebiec and Dan Connolly. That is unless Pie is sure that he’s headed back to Triple-A in 2009.
4. Instead of playing winter ball, Colby Rasmus hit the gym this off-season and significantly bulked up. This seems like good news, and very well could be. But also remember that Jeff Francoeur did the same thing prior to the 2008 season. Also in that same article, Ryan Ludwick semi-jokes about his time in the gym this off-season, and what he hoped to accomplish from it, ”I’d like to hit 50”.
5. I’m sure that everybody has heard the Prince Fielder to Boston trade rumors. Gerry Fraley, writing for The Sporting News, doesn’t think a trade will happen this season, but gives a number of reasons why the Brewers should trade Fielder.

Here are the fantasy baseball rankings for the top ten outfielders for the 2008 season. I will also list the predictions from the pre-season at the bottom of this post for comparison.

1. Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles Dodgers - Manny did it all in 2008. He alienated teammates and Red Sox Nation. But, once he decided to get serious, he hit better than anyone else in baseball. 102 runs | 37 HR | 121 RBI | 3 SB | .332
2. Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies - Is it possible for your home run total to go down at Coors Field? I’m nit picking here since he still hit 25 homers and was one of the most versatile hitters in fantasy baseball. 107 runs | 25 HR | 88 RBI | 28 SB | .321
3. Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers - Had a much more powerful first half than second. But both halves of the season were pretty phenomenal. 98 runs | 32 HR | 130 RBI | 9 SB | .304
4. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros - This is most likely the last seaosn you’ll see Berkman with outfield eligibility. Now he can dominate the first basemen for the rest of his career. 114 runs | 29 HR | 106 RBI | 18 SB | .312
5. Ryan Ludwick, St. Louis Cardinals - A lot of St. Louis fans wondered out loud what Ludwick could do with a full season of at-bats. He tore the cover off of the ball. 104 runs | 37 HR | 113 RBI | 4 SB | .299
6. Carlos Beltran, New York Mets - His power is dipping which is understandable as you age. But, his stolen bases are on the rise (aren’t you supposed to slow down as you get older?). With all of these question marks, the only thig that is a certainty is that Beltran is an all around fantasy stud. 116 runs | 27 HR | 112 RBI | 25 SB | .284
7. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers - No sophomore slump for Braun. He actually bested his home run total and RBI total from 2007. 92 runs | 37 HR | 106 RBI | 14 SB | .285
8. Jason Bay, Boston Red Sox - Another solid season for Bay who may end up really liking it in Boston. It’s starting to look like 2007 was an anomaly. 111 runs | 31 HR | 101 RBI | 10 SB | .286
9. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians - This guy does everything extremely well. if his batting average would have been 10-15 points higher he would have been in the top three on this list. 101 runs | 33 HR | 90 RBI | 38 SB | .268
10. Carlos Quentin, Chicago White Sox - 36 dingers and 100 RBI in only 480 at-bats. Imagine what it could have been like if he’d gotten 550+ at-bats… 96 runs | 36 HR | 100 RBI | 7 SB | .287

Below are the pre-season rankings.

2008 American League Fantasy Baseball Outfielder Rankings

1. Carl Crawford | Tampa Bay Rays
2. Grady Sizemore | Cleveland Indians
3. Ichiro Suzuki | Seattle Mariners
4. Vladimir Guerrero | Los Angeles Angels
5. B.J. Upton | Tampa Bay Rays
6. Alex Rios | Toronto Blue Jays
7. Curtis Granderson | Detroit Tigers
8. Magglio Ordonez | Detroit Tigers
9. Manny Ramirez | Boston Red Sox
10. Bobby Abreu | New York Yankees
11. Nick Markakis | Baltimore Orioles
12. Torii Hunter | Los Angeles Angels
13. Vernon Wells | Toronto Blue Jays
14. Hideki Matsui | New York Yankees
15. Nick Swisher | Chicago White Sox
16. Jermaine Dye | Chicago White Sox
17. Delmon Young | Minnesota Twins
18. Johnny Damon | New York Yankees
19. Jacoby Ellsbury | Boston Red Sox
20. Raul Ibanez | Seattle Mariners
21. Jose Guillen | Kansas City Royals
22. Melky Cabrera | New York Yankees
23. Gary Matthews Jr. | Los Angeles Angels

2008 National League Fantasy Baseball Outfielder Rankings

1. Matt Holliday | Colorado Rockies
2. Alfonso Soriano| Chicago Cubs
3. Carlos Beltran | New York Mets
4. Carlos Lee | Houston Astros
5. Adam Dunn | Cincinnati Reds
6. Eric Byrnes | Arizona Diamondbacks
7. Chris Young | Arizona Diamondbacks
8. Hunter Pence | Houston Astros
9. Cory Hart | Milwaukee Brewers
10. Brad Hawpe | Colorado Rockies
11. Andruw Jones | Los Angeles Dodgers
12. Jason Bay | Pittsburgh Pirates
13. Shane Victorino | Philadelphia Phillies
14. Juan Pierre | Los Angeles Dodgers
15. Jeff Francoeur | Atlanta Braves
16. Ken Griffey Jr. | Cincinnati Reds
17. Matt Kemp | Los Angeles Dodgers
18. Pat Burrell | Philadelphia Phillies
19. Aaron Rowand| San Francisco Giants
20. Jeremy Hermida | Florida Marlins
21. Austin Kearns | Washington Nationals
22. Moises Alou | New York Mets

Week six saw the two leagues compete well against each other as the NL just edged out the AL 5-3 in awards. We also have a couple of repeat winners poking their heads back onto this list.

Catcher: Chris Iannetta | Colorado Rockies - Iannetta has been spending most of the 2008 fantasy baseball season as the backup catcher in Colorado, but last week saw considerable playing time. In 19 at-bats he averaged .368/.400/.737 with 2 runs scored, one home run and 7 RBI.

First Base: Kevin Youkilis | Boston Red Sox - This was an incredibly tough decision as Lance Berkman also had an incredibly strong week. Youk’s slash stats were lower than Berkman’s as he batted .375/.394/.937, but his roto numbers were a bit higher with 8 runs scored, 5 home runs, 10 RBI, and one stolen base.

Second Base: Dan Uggla | Florida Marlins - Uggla scored 8 runs, hit 4 home runs, and knocked in eight while averaging .350/.440/.1.000. Ian Kinsler was in consideration for a quick second, but his power numbers paled in comparison to Uggla’s.

Third Base: Mike Lowell | Boston Red Sox - Lowell joins fellow Sox IF mate to win this week’s MVP award. He edged out Blake DeWitt by scoring 9 runs, hitting 3 home runs, and driving in 9. Lowell also averaged .406 ( a rather important number in Red Sox history), /.429/.781.

Shortstop: Eric Bruntlett | Philadelphia Phillies - Bruntlett had great numbers as he enjoyed his last week of filling in for Jimmy Rollins. Bruntlett scored 4 times, hit one home run, drove in 8, and stole one base. He also averaged .368/.429/.737 as he edged out Hanley Ramirez mainly due to Ramirez having a lower slugging percentage than on-base percentage.

Outfield: Ryan Ludwick | St. Louis Cardinals - Ludwickhad a very nice power week as he scored 5 times, hit 4 home runs, drove in 9 and averaged .478/.480/1.130.

Starting Pitcher: James Shields | Tampa Bay Rays - Shields has one monster great start this past week, as he would have had to to edge out some of the two-start pitchers. Shields pitched a complete game, one hit shutout against the Angels. He struck out eight while walking none and had a perfect 0.00 ERA and a 0.11 WHIP.

Relief Pitcher: Kerry Wood | Chicago Cubs - Wood is finally pitching like the stud closer the Cubs had hoped for when they selected him over Carlos Marmol during Spring Training. Last week, Wood recorded three saves while only giving up one hit in 4.0 innings of work. He had a 4:0 strikeout to walk ratio and had a 0.00 ERA and a 0.25 WHIP.