Crooked Pitch

We’re into round eight now. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, and round 7.

• Round 8 : Pick 1(85) - @seniorcircuit - Torii Hunter - After filling two scarce infield positions and one of the catcher spots I was looking for more 20/20 outfielders. I think Hunter will get comfortable and come close to his numbers of 2007. I think 90/23/85/20/.280 is a reasonable projection for him in 2009.
• Round 8 : Pick 2(86) - @jasoncollette - Roy Oswalt - Hopefully the Oswalt we saw from April to June is gone forever. From July 1 on last year, 10 wins, a 2.22 ERA is the Roy we all know and love. Last year’s 3.54 ERA was the highest of his entire career; quite impressive considering his home ballpark. Oswalt continues to go later than I think he should in drafts.
• Round 8 : Pick 3(87) - @dowdyism - Chad Billingsley - A low 3’s ERA and in the neighborhood of 200 strikeouts - I’ll take that for my number two starter any day of the week.  Billingsley did tack on over 50 more innings in 2008 than in 2007, but his numbers stayed consistent across the board.  The broken leg he suffered is the offseason is reportedly completely healed, so I am looking for a repeat of 2008.
• Round 8: Pick 4(88) - @therotofeed - Ervin Santana - Most people don’t know this, but his given name is also Johan Santana.  For reals. He didn’t want to get mixed up with the original Johan so he chose Ervin on the basis that he thought it sounded cool. I think another season like last year sounds cool, and that he’ll do it. He’s not yet 26 years old and he was flat out dominant in 08.
• Round 8 : Pick 5(89) - @sporer - John Lackey - A draft day value last year thanks to starting the season the shelf for six weeks, Lackey was elite upon arrival due in large part to a 91% strand rate. However, the wheels fell off in the 2nd half of the season again tied to strand rate which was merely 69%. On the whole, he remains an upper crust starting pitcher that can be counted on for 200+ innings with good ratios and enough strikeouts to remain effective and help your fantasy team’s bottom line.
• Round 8 : Pick 6(90) - @tommystv - Scott Kazmir - I don’t go pitcher early, but when I do go I go hard. Took Kazmir as best pitcher on the board. For the longest time he was a legit pitcher that just couldn’t get Ws, well the Rays win now.
• Round 8 : Pick 7(91) - @xxldaddyo - Troy Tulowitzki - After seeing the run on pitchers, we were tempted to continue the streak by taking Dice-K, but there were far more #2 pitchers still available than there were quality shortstops. Tulo will be back in 09. He hit .321 in the 2H last year and should be good for .290 / 100 R / 15+ HR.
• Round8 : Pick 8(92) - @jefeboy - Aubrey Huff -I guess most folks don’t expect him to repeat his 2008 numbers. I don’t either, but if he comes close he’ll earn this spot easily. I need some power, and while he may not get 32 again, he’s got to be good for 25+.
• Round 8 : Pick 9(93) - @fakebaseball - Jay Bruce - Since I’ve taken mostly older, steadier players (which isn’t how I usually draft, but younger players have been flying off the board in this particular draft), at the end of the 8th I went with a higher-risk upside pick in Bruce. I don’t think .275/27+ HR/10 SB is unreasonable in’09, and runs and RBIs should be good as well, hitting in the middle of the order as he’s projected. Best-case, he’ll put up Jason Bay-like numbers, which would make him a steal late in the 8th round.
• Round 8 : Pick 10(94) - @TheRoundtable - Daisuke Matsuzaka - When you select Dice-K, you need to know that your WHIP is going to take a hit. He gives you a heart attack on the mound every five days, but you can’t argue with the ultimate results. 18 wins last season and he could have had three or four more had he not missed a month. Batters don’t hit well against him, and he’s adjusted to the MLB better than anyone could have expected. If I’m only sacrificing WHIP, the other stats certainly make up for it at this point. Plus, the run on starting pitching had me thinking that Webb looked lonely.
• Round 8 : Pick 11(95) - @Angels2717 - Rich Harden - The only thing that worried me about this pick was the chance of injury. But a healthy Harden is a monster pitcher. With run support from the Cubs, if stayed healthy, he should produce some great numbers. I usually wouldn’t go for a second pitcher at this point, but there wasn’t much options and I wanted another solid pitcher.
• Round 8 : Pick 12(96) - @crookedpitch - Chone Figgins - If healthy, this guy could play in 150+ games. If he sees 150+ games he’ll steal 50+, bank on it. I am with this pick.

Today’s pitch count is 8.

1. When the Giants signed Jesus Guzman away from the A’s, they guaranteed him an invitation to spring training. In 415 minor league at-bats last season, Guzman batted .349/.404/.545 with 26 doubles and 17 home runs. He tore up the Venezuelan League recently and if he continues tearing it up this spring the Giants will need to look at getting him some big league at-bats. As a 3B/SS he might not take too much playing time from Pedro Sandoval, who also tore up the Venezuelan League (see above link), and the mix at shortstop got even more jumbled with the addition of Edgar Renteria. There are many questions left to be answered on the left side of the Giants infield.
2. I can’t wait to see Mark Prior climbing draft boards now that the Padres have signed him to a minor league deal. How many times over the next few months are we going to read, “If Prior is healthy…”? His average draft position is sure to be on the rise, but if you’re crazy enough to draft him you deserve the angst he’ll cause you by May. Prior is best left to the waiver wire until he make a few starts at the big league level. He just isn’t a draftable commodity.
3. As someone who just drafted Alex Gordon and Billy Butler this graph showing how probably Royals hitters are to hit a certain number of home runs in 2009 is a must read. To end the suspense… Butler’s chance of hitting 20 dingers is 15.4% and Gordon’s is 35%. There are other hitters in this study, so go check it out.
4. Scott Kazmir has put on 20 pounds in the off-season, but in a good way. The extra weight is due to hitting the gym.
5. The Dodgers are expected to cut Andruw Jones today. He’s been seen around the ATL quite a bit lately. Is he the answer to Braves need for a left fiedler?
6. You can add Miguel Montero to the list of catchers the Red Sox are interested in obtaining. Montero has pretty good pop, but has yet to show he can hit for any kind of average. And he’d probably platoon with Bard anyway, so this might not vault his fantasy value as much as you’d think.
7. One of the hottest sleeper candidates last season at the pitcher position was Ian Snell. That didn’t quite work out. His name is popping up again this off-season. Pat Lackey shares with us why that is.
8. Fantasy Ball Junkie has an interesting post about the five most fantasy significant transactions so far this off-season.

I had a lot of fun last night participating in my first real draft of the year over at Mock Draft Central. The league is a 12 team roto league called Battle of the Fantasy Gods. Here’s how I did drafting from the 12th spot at building my 23-man roster. Remember that we have no bench spots, so all of these guys will start for me each week.

I also spent the night on twitter broadcasting my thoughts, picks, and asking for opinions. Thanks to @fakebaseball, @tmo119, @piraterev, @xxldaddyo, and @angels2717 for hanging out, listening and not laughing at all of my picks. Follow these guys on twitter as well as keep up with my updates too at @crookedpitch.

1. Catcher: Joe Mauer - I grabbed Mauer in the 5th round after Soto, Martin and McCann went earlier. I’m looking forward to his .320+ batting average this season and hope he’ll approach triple digit runs scored and double digit home runs.
2. Catcher: Ryan Doumit - I wasn’t expecting to grab another catcher of this quality, but I did so in the 11th round and can safely say that I have the best catcher tandem in the league. I’m not sure if Doumit will hit over .300 again due to his high hit rate, but .280 or so would be great. Especially if he can approach 20 dingers.
3. First Base: Mark Teixeira - Teixeira was my 2nd round pick at #13 and I expect big things from him hitting in that Yankee lineup.
4. Second Base: Brandon Phillips - I took Phillips in the 3rd round as I felt there was a huge drop off in talent at the second base position after him. I love the power / speed combo.
5. Short Stop: Jimmy Rollins - Rollins was my first round pick and I feel very fortunate that he fell to me at the #12 pick. His speed / power combo also excites me.
6. Third Base: Alex Gordon - At around the 5th round I decided to wait a while for a third baseman. I waited until the 14th round and grabbed Alex Gordon. I’d love it if he hit 20 home runs this season, but it’ll more likely be in the high teens. He could also steal double digit bases for me and since his walk rate is rising, and his strikeout rate is dropping, I’d love to see his batting average climb a bit too.
7. Outfield: Nick Markakis - I took Markakis in the 4th round and I’m looking for triple digit runs scored, 20+ home runs, 10+ stolen bases, and a batting average above .300. Shouldn’t everyone’s standards for a 4th round pick be so high?
8. Outfield: Chris Young - My 8th round pick was Young and I’m going to need my 2008 .300 hitters to stay above .300 to supplement Young’s .250 average. But Young’s 20+ home runs and hopefully 20+ stolen bases will be nice.
9. Outfield: Jay Bruce - In 413 at-bats Bruce hit 21 home runs. So, in 2009, his first full season, I’m hoping for 30+ home runs. The 90-100 RBI that would come with that would be nice for a 10th round pick.
10. Outfield: Nick Swisher - My 17th round pick isn’t even going to get full time at-bats on his new team. I’m hoping that Swisher gets traded from the Yankees or some portion of the log jam there does, or this pick is a bad one.
11. Outfield: Adam Lind - Lind was a 19th round pick to finish out my outfield. I’d love to see him prove that 2007 was an outlier and that the rest of his career at a .300+ batting average is the norm. 20+ home runs would be a gift to me as well.
12. Middle Infielder: Howie Kendrick - Kendrick is a big injury risk, I know this. But, if healthy, he could hit above .300, blast 10 home runs and steal 20 bases. That’s a big if. Plus I got him for a value price in the 13th round at pick #156 when he had an ADP of 130.
13. Corner Infielder: Billy Butler -Two thirds of my corner infield spots play for Kansas City. Am I screwed or what? I hope that Butler can hit north of .290 and come close to 20 home runs in 2009, which wouldn’t be bad for a 20th round pick.
14. Utility: Jason Bartlett - With my last pick of the draft (23rd round) I wanted some more speed. I grabbed Bartlett and hope he’ll reach 20 stolen bases and not hurt me anywhere else.
15. Pitcher: Jonathan Papelbon - I took Paps in the 6th round and he wasn’t the first reliever selected, Francisco Rodriguez went in the 5th. He’s going to notch a lot of saves pitching for the Red Sox. Which I am going ot need since I did not draft another closer.
16. Pitcher: Josh Beckett - Beckett was my 7th round pick and I hope he’ll rebound in 2009 to get his ERA below 4.00 and bring his win total back up.
17. Pitcher:  Scott Kazmir - After Beckett, I wasn’t going to take another pitcher so early. But, when Kazmir was still available at my 9th round pick (#108) I had to jump on him since his ADP was 68. In theory, that’s 6th round talent in the 9th round. Score!
18. Pitcher: Rich Harden - Wish list for my 12th round pick: 1)Please stay healthy! 2)Keep your ERA close to 3.00. 3)Please stay healthy! 4)10+ K/9 ratio would be fantastic. 5)Did I mention please stay healthy?
19. Pitcher: Gavin Floyd -  I’m not expecting 17 wins again from my 15th round draft pick. But 12 wins with 150 strikeouts and a 4.00 ERA would be nice.
20. Pitcher: Matt Garza - I grabbed Garza in the 16th round and expect similar numbers to Floyd from him; 12 wins, 150 strikeouts, sub 4.00 ERA.
21. Pitcher: Max Scherzer - I reached a little bit for my 18th round pick here. I’m hoping for Scherzer to stay in the rotation all season and continue his 10+ K/9 ratio pace.
22. Pitcher: Manny Parra - Parra is my 21st round pick and if I get 10 wins from him and 135 strikeouts with an ERA around 4.00, I’d be happy.
23. Pitcher: Mark Buehrle - 10 Wins, 4.00 ERA, 130 strikeouts. That’s all I want from this 22nd round pick.

So, there you go. How’d I do?

What was my best pick? Worst one?

Here are a few links to the results of the draft:

• Draft Grid
• Team Rosters
• Draft Results