Crooked Pitch

Thank you for visiting Crooked Pitch! While you're here you'll find tons of valuable fantasy baseball information to help you win your fantasy baseball league. If you're new here, or haven't done so yet, you may want to subscribe to my RSS feed. You can also follow Crooked Pitch on Twitter @crookedpitch Thanks for visiting!

One of the finest arts of all fantasy sports, and one of the key ingredients to fantasy victory is the concept of buying low and selling high. It is the classic guessing game of fantasy sports, and those who do it well tend to see impressive results in the fantasy world.

How can one tell though?

How can we know that someone who is batting .340 in May will go on to bat .260 in June? Who can guess when a player homers twice in May, that the same player will homer 14 times in June? And who has the crystal ball that shows which pitcher will win 5 games one month, yet only win one game the following? The answer is…NOBODY!!!!!!!!!! You can raise your chances of being good at this classic guessing game by looking at certain statistics and trends, but a good hunch or gut-feeling can go a long way.

At one third of the way through the 2009 season, let’s examine a few possible sell high candidates.

(more…)

I’m still catching up here on publishing the commentary from each selection in our slow mock draft. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, and round 5.

• Round 6 : Pick 1(61) - @seniorcircuit - Geovany Soto - After the elite catchers were off the board I was surprised that Soto was still there for me. I don’t mind taking a catcher early, especially in 2 catcher leagues. Who even started the 2 catcher policy? I can see Soto make a slight regression as pitchers get used to seeing him but will still put up quality numbers from the catchers spot.  I project Soto at 70/22/85/.275
• Round 6 : Pick 2(62) - @jasoncollette - Chris Davis - This was going to be Votto’s spot but alas, someone loves him more than I do. I saw Davis go in the 5th round of the MLB expert draft I’m doing and at this rate,  he’s going to go in a 4th round by March. He will hit behind Kinsler, Young, Hamilton, and Cruz so there is plenty of potential for 35 homers, 100+ RBI, but anything over .265 is a bonus.
• Round 6 : Pick 3(63) - @dowdyism - Stephen Drew -He has the bloodlines, and 2008 saw the breakout of Stephen Drew. I was looking for either Drew or Geovany Soto on the turn, and once Soto was gone, it was an easy decision.  I missed out on the 2B run, so I wanted to be sure to get good production from SS. Last years numbers are a good baseline on what I expect in 2009.
• Round 6 : Pick 4(64) - @therotofeed - Hunter Pence - I think this is the year before the breakout year for Pence, which should still come out rather nicely. I’m guessing he won’t be as much of a feast and famine guy this year and I’m hunting for 90/30/90.
• Round 6 : Pick 5(65) - @sporer - Robinson Cano -I was ready to take Cano when I took Granderson so I’m pleased to see him fall another round to me. In a tough season, he still put a pretty usable line at second base. I expect a much better season in the area of 2007’s breakout campaign. The lineup in New York is still excellent meaning the R & RBI numbers will be plentiful and he should have a better batting average (nearing .300) if he can avoid hitting .242 for a half as in 2008.  I’m predicting a bounce back season for Cano and I’m happy to get him in the 6th.
• Round 6 : Pick 6(66) - @tommystv - Shane Victorino - Victorino was the last top 50 player I had on my board still remaining. Although I do watch for value players slipping I like to justify a need before I pull the trigger. I needed to address steals at some point and this is a value you pick almost 3 rds beyond where he skill set justified him going. I’d love to see that little bit of pop he had last year continue.
• Round 6 : Pick 7(67) - @xxldaddyo - Cliff Lee -I already took the best Catcher in baseball (Brian McCann) in the 4th Round so why not pare him up with the best Starting Pitcher in baseball last year: AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee. Lee’s breakout year reminds me eerily of Chris Carpenters breakout season in 2004. Both were 29 when they came into their own and while it may not be reasonable to expect Lee to match last years SICK numbers, if he does 90% of that? I’d be a happy man.
• Round6 : Pick 8(68) - @jefeboy - Carlos Delgado -At this point I just needed power, and chose Delgado over Dunn because I think their HR totals will be in the same ballpark but Delgado should hurt my BA less.
• Round 6 : Pick 9(69) - @fakebaseball - Bobby Abreu -My pick of Bobby Abreu is an example of going with your rankings even though you dislike the player, and there are sexier picks on the board ahead of him. I have .285/16-18 HR/20 SB penciled in for Abreu, with a goodly amount of runs driven in and scored, because chances are wherever he lands (Cincinnati, perhaps?), he’ll be put in the middle of the order (regardless of whether or not he deserves it at this stage of his career). I fully recognize he’s a risk because he’s getting to the age where a precipitous decline can happen at any time, but I’ll take the risk, and the SBs, so I won’t have to suffer with “cheap speed” options later.
• Round 6 : Pick 10(70) - @TheRoundtable - Magglio Ordonez - I’m actually kicking myself because I missed the run on second basemen, so decided to fill in the outfield with who I feel is best available there at this point. The other positions seem relatively similar across the board over the next few players. Ordonez’s power numbers might be slightly down, but since his two-year injury run, he’s been healthy and providing good numbers for that Tigers offense. This is a guy that I have ranked in my top-50 (granted the end of it) that I was able to grab with pick 70.
• Round 6 : Pick 11(71) - @Angels2717 - Joe Nathan -Some might not think of taking Nathan as the first overall closer. But I believe this year, he will prove he is one of the best is not the best at his position. He has one of the lowest ERA’s of closers and is almost perfect on save oppurtunities. He has been very consistent throughout the past couple of years. No, he might not be the highest strikeout guy, but you don’t take closers just for their strikeouts.
• Round 6 : Pick 12(72) - @crookedpitch - Ryan Ludwick - I don’t expect Ludwick to approach a .300 batting average again in 2009. However, I do feel that 30 homers and 100 RBI are a distinct possibility. How could I pass up those numbers in the 6th round? Plus, it does sort of fit in with my power hitters theme that I’ve got going on.

There are  a few position battles going on that will effect these rankings up until the point they are decided. There’s Punto and Harris battling it out in Minnesota. The Angels are looking at both Aybar and Izturis and Cincinnati is dealing with Gonzalez versus Keppinger. Until winners are announced in those races, they’re not making the list.

Here are the 2009 fantasy short stop rankings:

1. Hanley Ramirez | Florida Marlins - This 30/30 guy is a stud and will be off the draft board before your pick; unless you’re picking first. He just turned 25 and won’t be dropping off any time soon.
2. Jose Reyes | New York Mets - Reyes walked less last year but saw his on-base percentage and batting average rise. He’s still very young (25) and could still improve while expecting little to no drop-off.
3. Jimmy Rollins | Philadelphia Phillies - Injuries zapped Rollins power numbers after a huge MVP season in ‘07. Even though he missed 160 or so at-bats he still stole more bases, so his speed is still there. Expect the power to return in ‘09 and get excited that he improved his walk rate and lowered his strikeout rate last season.
4. Stephen Drew | Arizona Diamondbacks - Drew finished fourth among short stops in home runs and led them in doubles last season. That leads me to believe that  there may be more power to come. This guy is closer to Rollins than most people think. If he improves again in ‘09, he’ll enter elite status among short stops.
5. Alexei Ramirez | Chicago White Sox - Ramirez finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting and showed great pop with his 21 home runs in only 480 at-bats. He’s a sleeper to become a 20/20 guy this year.
6. Jhonny Peralta | Cleveland Indians - Peralta led short stops in RBI, finished second in doubles and third in home runs in ‘08. The only knock against him is he strikes out way, way too much. He did lower his strikeout rate in ‘08, so if that trend continues, you can expect a huge ‘09.
7. Rafael Furcal | Los Angeles Dodgers - Furcal torched pitchers and basepaths in 32 games prior to an almost season ending injury. If he can stay healthy to the tune of 600 at-bats in ‘09 at his ‘08 pace he’s a potent 20/30 guy. But the downside is huge too.
8. Derek Jeter | New York Yankees - It’s odd to see Jeter this low on the list, but father time seems to be taking his toll. That being said, .300 with 11 homers and 11 stolen bases is nothig to shake a stick at.
9. J.J. Hardy | Milwaukee Brewers - As streky of a hitter as Hardy is, he still hit .283 with 24 home runs in ‘08. A source of home runs at short stop is a boon for any league. I wouldn’t expect any drop-off and I wouldn’t argue with a further break-out prediction. He is turning 27-years-old this season…
10. Michael Young | Texas Rangers - Young is crying for a trade due to the Rangers asking him to move to third base. His ranking will change if that happens, but right now draft him here and expect .280+ with double digit steals and home runs and lots of runs scored.
11. Troy Tulowitzki | Colorado Rockies - Tulowitzki tore it up in September hitting .330 with three home runs, which excites many for a rebound in ‘09. I don’t think he’ll return to ‘07 power totals, but I would expect home runs in the high teens and an increased batting average due to his drop in strikeout rate.
12. Miguel Tejada | Houston Astros - At 35-years-old Tejada isn’t going to be breaking out anymore. He, most likely, isn’t going ot be surging either. Expect .280-.290 with 13-17 home runs and a good amount of runs scored.
13. Mike Aviles | Kansas City Royals - His .325 batting average in 419 at-bats was superb, but it came with a 35.9% hit rate. It’s tough for me to think he’ll repeat that. However, he should be right around .300 and will hit double digits in home runs and stolen bases.
14. Yunel Escobar | Atlanta Braves - Improved strikeout and walk rate and also doubled his home run total in ‘08. I can see better things to come in ‘09. Also… he’s turning 27-years-old this year too.
15. Edgar Renteria | San Francisco - At 34-years-old, Renteria is definitely on the downward portion of his career. But, he’ll bat .270-.280 with 10 homers and 10 stolen bases. That’s good stuff towards the end of your draft.
16. Ryan Theriot | Chicago Cubs - His 20+ stolen bases are real, but his .307 batting average was due to a very high 34.0% hit rate. When his hit rate is normal he’s more like a .270 hitter. Draft accordingly.
17. Jason Bartlett | Tampa Bay Rays - We’re nearing the finish line for mixed-league relevancy with Bartlett. At the end of your draft, Bartlett can be a good source of 20 stolen bases and won’t hurt you too much with a .275 batting average.
18. Cristian Guzman | Washington Nationals - Guzman gives you some nice help in batting average and you can expect him to approach .300 again in ‘09. His seven to ten home runs are just gravy.
19. Jed Lowrie | Boston Red Sox - Lowrie strikes out way too much to have a batting average anywhere close to respectability. His power potential isn’t big so that can’t help and he’s no base stealer. So, look elsewhere for late round help.
    
20. Cesar Izturis | Baltimore Orioles - Those 24 stolen bases from ‘08 look great, but remember that this guy will hit in the .250’s and won’t produce much power at all.
21. Khalil Greene | St. Louis Cardinals - Greene isn’t a .213 hitter with only ten home runs. But he is a .245 hitter with 13-18 home runs and very few stolen bases.
22. Yuniesky Betancourt | Seattle Mariners - Look to Betancourt for AL-only help. His .280 batting average is the only help you get from him as he doesn’t hit home runs or steal bases.
23. Jack Wilson | Pittsburgh Pirates - Wilson’s a .270 hitter with not much else going on. He can help in a pinch in NL-only leagues.
24. Bobby Crosby | Oakland Athletics - Is Crosby’s 10-12 home run potential worth his .240 batting average? Only if you like 8th place in your fantasy league.
25. Luis Rodriguez | San Diego Padres - Rodriguez makes this list because I fear the wrath of Padres fans if I don’t include one of their oen, not because he has any fantasy value whatsoever.
26. John McDonald | Toronto Blue Jays - Ouch! If you’re drafting this guy, you must be related to him.
27. Adam Everett | Detroit Tigers - The Tigers signed Everett for his glove. In fact, they’d prefer he doesn’t ever grab a bat at all. Unfortunately, he’s gonna come to the plate in most games, but he shouldn’t on your fantasy teams.

Here are the fantasy baseball rankings for the top ten shortstops for the 2008 season. I will also list the predictions from the pre-season at the bottom of this post for comparison.

1. Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins - With Ramirez you get the best power/speed combo in the game today. 125 runs | 33 HR | 67 RBI | 35 SB | .301
2. Jose Reyes, New York Mets - With Reyes you get fewer home runs, but more stolen bases than Ramirez. You could really argue either player for the top spot here. 113 runs | 16 HR | 68 RBI | 56 SB | .297
3. Jhonny Peralta, Cleveland Indians - Simple math here… There were six shortstops with 20 or more stolen bases and only five with 20 or more home runs. That being said, I gave Peralta the nod over Rollins for the #3 spot. 104 runs | 23 HR | 89 RBI | 3 SB | .276
4. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia Phillies - With numbers like these, is it really fair to consider 2008 a down year for Rollins? 76 runs | 11 HR | 59 RBI | 47 SB | .277
5. Michael Young, Texas Rangers - Consistency and well rounded statistics keep Young high on this list, but not in the elite crew. 102 runs | 12 HR | 82 RBI | 10 SB | .284
6. J.J. Hardy, Milwaukee Brewers -Hardy’s power numbers place him squarely in the thick of things for shortstops not named Ramirez, Reyes, Rollins or Peralta. 78 runs | 24 HR | 74 RBI | 2 SB | .283
7. Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks -Drew showed why he was worthy of his first round selection in 2004. 91 runs | 21 HR | 67 RBI | 3 SB | .291
8. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox -Multi-position goodness plus his well rounded stats make him valuable to any fantasy baseball team. 65 runs | 21 HR | 77 RBI | 13 SB | .290
9. Derek Jeter, New York Yankees -Jeter just isn’t the fantasy force he used to be. But the Yanks couldn’t live without him. 88 runs | 11 HR | 69 RBI | 11 SB | .300
10. Miguel Tejada, Houston Astros -Tejada just edges out Orlando Cabrera for the 10th spot due to his power numbers. 92 runs | 13 HR | 66 RBI | 7 SB | .283

Below find my pre-season rankings of the shortstop position.

2008 American League Fantasy Baseball Shortstop Rankings

1. Derek Jeter | New York Yankees
2. Carlos Guillen* | Detroit Tigers
3. Edgar Renteria | Detroit Tigers
4. Michael Young | Texas Rangers
5. Orlando Cabrera | Chicago White Sox
6. Julio Lugo | Boston Red Sox
7. Jhonny Peralta | Cleveland Indians
8. Jason Bartlett | Tampa Bay Rays
9. Yuniesky Betancourt | Seattle Mariners
10. Tony Pena | Kansas City Royals
11. Erick Aybar | Los Angeles Angels
12. Bobby Crosby | Oakland Athletics
13. David Eckstein | Toronto Blue Jays
14. Adam Everett | Minnesota Twins
15. Juan Uribe | Chicago White Sox
16. Nick Punto | Minnesota Twins
17. John McDonald | Toronto Blue Jays
18. Brandon Wood | Los Angeles Angels

* - Carlos Guillen will be playing first base for the Tigers in 2008, but will have shortstop eligibilty, in most leagues. He is a more valuable shortstop than a first baseman, and should be used as such, as long as he is eligible.

2008 National League Fantasy Baseball Shortstop Rankings

1. Hanley Ramirez | Florida Marlins
2. Jose Reyes | New York Mets
3. Jimmy Rollins | Philadelphia Phillies
4. Troy Tulowitzki | Colorado Rockies
5. Miguel Tejada | Houston Astros
6. J.J. Hardy | Milwaukee Brewers
7. Rafael Furcal | Los Angeles Dodgers
8. Khalil Greene | San Diego Padres
9. Stephen Drew | Arizona Diamondbacks
10. Ryan Theriot | Chicago Cubs
11. Yunel Escobar | Atlanta Braves
12. Jack Wilson | Pittsburgh Pirates
13. Alex Gonzalez | Cincinnati Reds
14. Cristian Guzman | Washington Nationals
15. Omar Vizquel | San Francisco Giants
16. Cesar Izturis | St. Louis Cardinals
17. Brendan Ryan | St. Louis Cardinals
18. Alfredo Amezaga | Florida Marlins
19. Jeff Keppinger | Cincinnati Reds
20. Jamey Carroll | Colorado Rockies