Crooked Pitch

Pitchers and catchers are reporting this week. That makes this the perfect time to start working on the rankings for starting pitchers.

Today, let’s look at the top ten:

1. Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants - The real question at the top of the starting pitcher rankings is who to rank #1 between Lincecum and Santana. I like Lincecum to win strikeouts and ERA and Santana to get more wins and have a better WHIP. I’m giving Lincecum the nod here as I think he crushed Santana in strikeouts and the other three categories are relatively similar.
2. Johan Santana | New York Mets - I must be crazy to rank a guy #2 when I feel he’ll lead the league in wins, strike out 200+ and lead all starting pitchers in WHIP. Call me crazy, I just think Lincecum is a little more special.
3. C.C. Sabathia | New York Yankees - I like Sabathia to be a top three starting pitcher in wins and to keep his WHIP under 1.20 and strike out close to 200. I do worry about his return to the American League though.
4. Cole Hamels | Philadelphia Phillies - Hamels will finish just behind Sabathis in wins, strikeouts and ERA but actually might have more upside. His fabulous post-season performance last season should give him a huge shot of confidence going into ‘09.
5. Roy Halladay | Toronto Blue Jays - Halladay’s K/9 spiked dramatically last season; a trend that will probably normalize in ‘09. He won’t win 20 again, his numbers will still be very ace-like.
6. Brandon Webb | Arizona Diamondbacks - Webb is the model of consistency here. He’s gone five years in a row with over 200 innings pitched and 30 starts. You know exactly what you’re going ot get when you grab Webb.
7. Jake Peavy | San Diego Padres - If there was a dropoff point among the starting pitchers (read: tier) this would be the first one. Peavy isn’t the same pitcher he used to be (which is hard to say about a 27-year-old), but you can still count on a sub 3.50 ERA, double digit wins and almost 200 strikeouts.
8. Dan Haren | Arizona Diamondbacks - Haren gives the Diamondbacks what might be the best one-two punch in baseball on the mound. He’s been trending wonderfully with his strikeout totals, WHIP and win totals. He may not even be done improving.
9. Roy Oswalt | Houston Astros - It seemed like everything that was hit in the air against Oswalt in the first half of last season left the ballpark. He corrected that in the second half and returned to the premium pitcher we all knew he could be. Don’t pay for second half numbers, but realize that he’s a 15-win guy who will stay well below the 4.00 ERA mark.
10. James Shields | Tampa Bay Rays - Shields has grown as a pitcher in each of the last two seasons and does just about everything well. At age 27, expect another growth year in ‘09.

It’s time for another installment of movers and shakers on the Mock Draft Central Average Draft Position Report.

Headed Up

• Andy Pettitte | New York Yankees | +7.7% - You knew the Pettitte re-signing would begin his slow rise in ADP. This is his second consecutive week with a 7+ percentage point rise. He’s now into the 23rd round at 276.76 from 298.00.
• Ryan Braun | Milwaukee Brewers | +7.1% - Braun is firmly entrenching himself in the first round as he goes from an ADP of 10.41 to 9.72.
• Ian Kinsler | Texas Rangers | +4.1% - There has been much debate so far about which second baseman (Utley, Pedroia or Kinsler) deserves to be the highest ranked at his position. This week it was Kinsler as he went from an ADP of 11.65 to 11.19 and was the only one of the three to rise in ADP. (for what it’s worth, I disagree and rank Kinsler third out of these guys)
• Grant Balfour | Tampa Bay Rays | +3.8% - Balfour just penned a one-year contract with the Rays and had a 1.54 ERA with 82 strikeouts in 58.1 innings of work. He’s a superb set-up man and a must own if your league uses holds. He’s up to a 290.84 ADP from 301.86.
• Matt Wieters | Baltimore Orioles | +3.2% - Wieters climbed last week from a mid-11th-round 127.36 to an early 11th round 123.45. All without seeing a Major League pitch.
• Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants | +3.0% - Lincecum has almost climbed into the second round as he’s sitting at 26.05 from an ADP of 26.82. Santana is still the highest ranked pitcher on the board at 18.58, but I’m not sure that I wouldn’t take Lincecum before him.

Other noteables: James Shields (+2.0%) and Brandon Lyon (+2.7%)

Headed Down

• Melvin Mora | Baltimore Orioles | -6.1% - Is it Mora’s age (36) or the Orioles addition of Wiggington that had fantasy GM’s selecting Mora later in mock drafts? His ADP dropped from a 17th round 204.14 to a 19th round 217.34.
• Matt Holliday | Oakland A’s | -6.0% - Holliday moved last week from an ADP of 13.37 to 14.23. It looks as if he’s completely out of contention for a first round selection, which is probably as it should be since he’s no longer hitting in Coors Field.
• Mike Jacobs | Kansas City Royals | -5.6% - A crowded Royals first base depth chart and his inability to het lefties migt have spawned his drop to an ADP in the 22nd round of 263.05 from the 21st round 248.37 he was at last week.
• Ubaldo Jimenez | Colorado Rockies | -4.2% - Jimenez just rose 5.6% last week after signing a new deal and now drops out of the 23rd round to 282.36 from 270.55 this week. WTF???
• Chien-Ming Wang | New York Yankees | -3.2% - He’s not a strikeout threat or a very good base runner, but Wang, if healthy, should perform better than his ADP of 215.35 (19th round) predicts. Last week he fell from 208.37 (18th round).
• John Smoltz | Boston Red Sox | -3.0 - Smoltz fell from an ADP of 260.48 to 268.64 last week. Are February mock drafters finally realizing that Smoltz is in no hurry to hit the mound in Fenway? The Red Sox are going to make 125% sure that Smoltz is healthy and only care about him helping out in the stretch run and the playoffs.

Other noteables: Ryan Howard (-5.1%), Jason Giambi (-4.4%), Mark DeRosa (-4.0%), Alex Rodriguez (-3.8%), Jorge Cantu (-3.1%) and Justin Upton (-3.0).

Here are the results of our third round in the slow mock draft. To see the past rounds and commentary follow the links to round 1 and round 2.

• Round 3 : Pick 1(25) - @crookedpitch - Prince Fielder - He’s not a 50 home run guy, but I wouldn’t count out 35-40 homers with 100+ RBI. Fielder is exactly the kind of pick I want here as I’m still going with my power early strategy. He’s  my first player that won’t hit above .300, but .275 ain’t too shabby for the power numbers he’ll put up. With these last two picks right in a row I grabbed a potential 60+ home runs and 215+ RBI. I’m also happy that all three of my first picks have 30+ home run potential. Did I mention I’m drafting power early in this draft?
• Round 3 : Pick 2(26) - @Angels2717 - Brandon Phillips - I gotta take the 20/20 Brandon Phillips with capability of raising that much higher.  In the third round, you got to take a guy who’s 20/20 puts him in the same category in that stat with guys like Hanley, Grady Sizemore, David Wright, Rollins and Alfonso Soriano.  As the draft goes on you just wont find the power and speed combo anymore.  After taking two power hitters, I decided to settle with some speed and with some power to go with it.
• Round 3 : Pick 3(27) - @TheRoundtable - Manny Ramirez - So my working theory is that Ramirez will be signed SOMEWHERE by opening day. If he isn’t, then me and Scott Boras are going to have a few words. Last season, he hit 37 home runs and drove in 121 between Boston and LA. Every season since 1998, except 2007, has seen him put up at least 33 home runs and 100 RBI. The way I look at it, he’s another pick that I’m going to be able to count on to produce every game he decides to play. And, yes, as a Sox fan I’m not too thrilled. As a fantasy owner, he’s a solid pick here.
• Round 3 : Pick 4(28) - @fakebaseball - Jason Bay - Since I took leadoff hitters with my first two picks, it made sense to take a middle-of-the-lineup slugger in the third round, and of course there were good, fairly valued choices here (so no reaching was required). As I have discussed more than once on my Twitter blog, I think Quentin is being overrated in ‘09, so I went with Bay as my 30 HR/100 RBI slugger (I think he and Markakis are very close in value, so I went with the higher-power choice). I could even see the possibility of Bay outperforming Holliday and Hamilton from a fantasy perspective in ‘09, though I’m not expecting it.
• Round 3 : Pick 5(29) - @jefeboy - Brian Roberts - Was glad to see him fall to me here, since I considered taking him in the 2nd round. I like to get lots of speed, since it’s a good commodity to trade later on. And I like to build my IF early and patch together an OF as needed.
• Round 3 : Pick 6(30) - @xxldaddyo - Nick Markakis -We took Nick Markakis because of his upside. Dude hit .322 in the second half last year and he’s still just a pup at 25. Thirty home runs in 2009, ya heard it here first.
• Round 3 : Pick 7(31) - @tommystv - Carlos Quentin - But with reaches like [the Markakis pick] that, guys like Carlos Quinton fall to me. Best player on my board, I’m absolutely stalking SS’s at this point, but I’ll wait for the run on the next tier, I think the next 6 on the board are all the same. Quinton on the other hand has hit 30+ and will hit 30+ again, and all of this production will happen on a team that actually scores runs.
• Round 3 : Pick 8(32) - @sporer - Matt Kemp - It’s been a mixed bag of opinions on Kemp for 2009.  I think a 2008 repeat +/- a few RBIs here or a few steals there is on tap for the budding superstar.  If he can continue to destroy lefties (.354 career) while making some improvements on his ‘08 performance vs. righties (.260), then he could be headed for a .300 season, but I’d bet more on something in the .280s.  A 90-20-90-30 season is a perfectly reasonable expectation for Kemp.  It’s hard not to love across-the-board producers like this.
• Round 3 : Pick 9(33) - @therotofeed - Carl Crawford - I picked Crawford because he’s also coming off some injuries that nagged him all year and brought down his performance.  I think he returns to his 2007 self and the upside gamble is that he turns in another season like his 2005 year.  The guy is only 27.
• Round 3 : Pick 10(34) - @dowdyism - Aramis Ramirez - This is my first mock draft of the 2009 season, and I think the rust is showing.  I still don’t feel like I’m in the flow yet.  That said, I like another 30HR/100 RBI corner man in Aramis Ramirez, especially at a thin 3B position.
• Round 3 : Pick 11(35) - @jasoncollette - Tim Lincecum - On Seabiscuit……I think he is the 2nd best pitcher this year behind Santana. He pitches in a pitcher’s park, gets to pitch in 2 other pitcher’s parks a lot this year, and the NL West has some rather putrid offenses as it stands on paper today.
• Round 3 : Pick 12(36) - @seniorcircuit - Adrian Gonzalez -I was happy to see another power bat available and filled my CI spot with Adrian Gonzalez. I can only imagine where he would go in a draft if he hit outside of Petco for a full year. I see him putting up 100/30/110/.280 for 2009.

Here are the fantasy baseball rankings for the top ten starting pitchers for the 2008 season. I will also list the predictions from the pre-season at the bottom of this post for comparison.

1. Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays - Halladay was one of four pitchers to win 20 games and was one of ten to strike out 200 or more hitters. He also finished second the league with nine complete games. 20 Wins | 206 K’s | 2.78 ERA | 1.05 WHIP
   
2. Cliff Lee, Cleveland Indians - His 22 wins were 17 more than his win total from 2007. He also cut his ERA in half and then some. 22 Wins | 170 K’s | 2.54 ERA | 1.11 WHIP
3. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants - Lincecum led the league in strikeouts and was in the top seven in wins pitching for a team with only 72 wins. 18 Wins | 265 K’s | 2.62 ERA | 1.17 WHIP
4. C.C. Sabathia, Milwaukee Brewers - The move to Milwaukee was the best thing to happen to Sabathia as his ERA dropped from 3.83 to 1.65 and his win total skyrocketed. 17 Wins | 251 K’s | 2.70 ERA | 1.11 WHIP
5. Johan Santana, New York Mets - No pitcher received more off-season hype last year than Santana. And while he seemed to accumulate strong stats quietly during the season, these numbers truly do shout that Santana is among the leagues best pitchers. 16 Wins | 206 K’s | 2.53 ERA | 1.15 WHIP
6. Ryan Dempster, Chicago Cubs - Dempster finished tenth in the league in ERA among starters with at least 100 innings of work. He was also 12th in strikeouts. Not bad for a guy who wasn’t a top notch reliever. 17 Wins | 187 K’s | 2.96 ERA | 1.21 WHIP
7. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies - Hamels might have lost ten times in 2008, but his ERA was on the very low side of 3.00 and his strikeouts almost hit the 200 mark. 14 wins isn’t too shabby either. 14 Wins | 196 K’s | 3.09 ERA | 1.08 WHIP
8. Dan Haren, Arizona Diamondbacks - Haren faded a little bit in the second half but his 200+ strikeouts, monster WHIP, and win total force him to be added to this list. 16 Wins | 206 K’s | 3.33 ERA | 1.13 WHIP
9. Rich Harden, Chicago Cubs - Harden’s inclusion here was a tough choice for me. On one hand he only started 25 games and pitched 148.0 innings. On the other hand he led the league in ERA, was in the top three in WHIP, and in the top 20 in strikeouts. 10 Wins | 181 K’s | 2.07 ERA | 1.06 WHIP
10. Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamondbacks - It was almost impossible to leave the MLB wins leader off this top ten list. If not for a rough June we might be talking Cy Young. 22 Wins | 183 K’s | 3.30 ERA | 1.20 WHIP

Below are the pre-season starting pitcher rankings.

2008 American League Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings

1. Josh Beckett | Boston Red Sox
2. C.C. Sabathia | Cleveland Indians
3. Erik Bedard | Baltimore Orioles
4. Justin Verlander | Detroit Tigers
5. Scott Kazmir | Tampa Bay Rays
6. John Lackey | Los Angeles Angels
7. Felix Hernandez | Seattle Mariners
8. Roy Halladay | Toronto Blue Jays
9. Daisuke Matsuzaka | Boston Red Sox
10. James Shields | Tampa Bay Rays
11. Fausto Carmona | Cleveland Indians
12. Javier Vazquez | Chicago White Sox
13. Kelvim Escobar | Los Angeles Angels
14. A.J. Burnett | Toronto Blue Jays
15. Chien-Ming Wang | New York Yankees
16. Francisco Liriano | Minnesota Twins
17. Jered Weaver | Los Angeles Angels
18. Joe Blanton | Oakland Athletics
19. Jeremy Bonderman | Detroit Tigers
20. Curt Schilling | Boston Red Sox

2008 National League Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings

1. Johan Santana | New York Mets
2. Jake Peavy | San Diego Padres
3. Brandon Webb | Arizona Diamondbacks
4. Cole Hamels | Philadelphia Phillies
5. Dan Haren | Arizona Diamondbacks
6. Aaron Harang | Cincinnati Reds
7. Carlos Zambrano | Chicago Cubs
8. Roy Oswalt | Houston Astros
9. John Smoltz | Atlanta Braves
10. Chris Young | San Diego Padres
11. Brett Myers | Philadelphia Phillies
12. Ben Sheets | Milwaukee Brewers
13. Matt Cain | San Francisco Giants
14. Rich Hill | Chicago Cubs
15. Brad Penny | Los Angeles Dodgers
16. Yovani Gallardo | Milwaukee Brewers
17. Jeff Francis | Colorado Rockies
18. Ted Lilly | Chicago Cubs
19. Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants
20. Tim Hudson | Atlanta Braves

Catcher: Russell Martin | Los Angeles Dodgers - Geovany Soto and his 16 bombs got the All-Star starting job for the NL, while stud Brian McCann barely got to play even though his numbers merited the role of NL starter as well. Russell martin was sandwiched in between them for the game. And even though he has fewer home runs than both catchers, and a lower batting average than McCann, Martin is the first half, fantasy MVP due to his stolen base output. He swiped 10 bags and proved that cathcers can run a bit. His value is in the fact that he produces in every fantasy category, and with numbers like .294/.394/.436 with 49 runs, 10 home runs, 45 RBI, and 10 stolen bases, he produces well.

First Base: Lance Berkman | Houston Astros - Ryan Howard may have 28 home runs, but he’s not even close to being as valuable of a fantasy first baseman as Berkman is. Berkman batted .347/.443/.653 with 79 runs, 22 home runs, 73 RBI, and 15 stolen bases in the first half of 2008. He may even have been the most valuable player in the entire fantasy baseball universe.

Second Base: Ian Kinsler | Texas Rangers - In April, if you had told me that Chase Utley would have 25 home runs at the All-Star break and wouldn’t be the most valuable fantasy baseball second baseman, I would have called the insane asylum and booked your room. It’s true though. Kinsler topped Utley in batting average, runs scored, and stolen bases, and isn’t too far behind in the RBI category. Kinsler’s first half numbers were .337/.397/.548 with 84 runs scored, 14 home runs, 58 RBI, and 23 stolen bases.

Shortstop: Hanley Ramirez | Florida Marlins - Ramirez sure has proven worthy of first round consideration at draft time this past off-season. He put up first half numbers of .311/.391/.566 with 80 runs scored, 23 home runs, 45 RBI, and 23 stolen bases and did that all without Miguel Cabrera hitting in the Marlins lineup with him. The only shortstop who can put up numbers like Hanley is playing third base for the Yankees.

Third Base: Chipper Jones | Atlanta Braves - Although he’s no longer flirting with a .400 batting average, Jones still tearing up National League pitching and leading the league in batting average . Jones is batting .376/.472/.614 with 56 runs scored, 18 home runs, 51 RBI, and two stolen bases. As long as Jones stays healthy, expect monster production from him to continue in the second half.

Outfield: Josh Hamilton | Texas Rangers - You don’t even have to consider his 28 home run, first round home run derby spectacle to consider what Hamilton is doing this season as spectacular. He’s leading MLB in RBI as he approached 100 RBI in the first half alone, and is just an all around good story for baseball. His first half numbers were .310/.367/.552 with 60 runs scored, 21 home runs, 95 RBI, and even seven stolen bases. Wherever you drafted this guy, you absolutely stole him.

Starting Pitcher: Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants - Picking a first half MVP from the great performers from the starting pitching pool, was very difficult. Cliff Lee, Edison Volquez, Roy Halladay, and even Justin Duchscherer deserved consideration. Lincecum was chosen as he second in the league in strikeouts, tied for third in wins, and is an ERA stud pitching for what was supposed to be a terrible team. His first half line was 11-2 with a 2.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 135 strikeouts and 47 walks in 129.2 innings of work.

Relief Pitcher: Francisco Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels - Rodriguez’ closest competitor in the saves category is 10 saves away, and his 38 saves leads MLB by a long shot. He also has a 2.36 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP to go along with those saves. In 42 innings pitched, Rodriguez struck out 41 and walked 26.