Crooked Pitch

There are some situations in fantasy baseball that just have disaster written all over them. Below are three positional battles and playing time configurations that could bring a summer of heartbreak.

Nationals Bullpen

The Nationals’ bullpen is the biggest embarrassment in Washington since Watergate. How bad is it? The Nationals have blown 13 of 19 save opportunities this year. Kip Wells, who began the season in the minors, has a strong chance to emerge as the top reliever for the team. The main culprits have been Joel Beimel who regained the closers role after coming off the disabled list and promptly allowed 5 ER’s in 4 IP and Joel Hanrahan who blew three of his first five save opportunities as the teams closer. The only saving grace is that the Nationals’ offense is not as bad as in years past. The Nat’s are currently 3rd in the National League at 5.92 Runs per game. With a little help from the other pitchers, whoever emerges as the closer could get some save opportunities.

(more…)

We’re starting to get into the thick of things when it comes to differing draft strategies and player evaluations. These next five to seven rounds are very fun to watch. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, round 5, and round 6.

• Round 7 : Pick 1(73) - @crookedpitch - Jermaine Dye - Yes, I know that Dye is 35-years-old. yes, I know that he’s likely to regress a small amount in ‘09. That being said, he’s still gonna be close to 30 home runs and havd 90+ RBI. That’s not bad in the 7th round; especially with a decent batting average and 90+ runs scored.
• Round 7 : Pick 2(74) - @Angels2717 - Adam Dunn - This is somewhat a risky pick because of his average.  It is god awful. But with some very good average guys already, I think I can take that risk to get his power. He should hit 40+ homers which will be a nice addition in this round.
• Round 7 : Pick 3(75) - @TheRoundtable - Jhonny Peralta - Want to talk about a guy that doesn’t get the respect of the other shortstops, it’s Peralta. He’s hit 20+ home runs in three of the last four years, and his average has risen each of the last three. He scored 100 runs last season, and frankly I think he has much more upside than Jeter, Young, or Tulo. You can argue I may have taken him a little high, but I think this was the right spot to make sure I add another 20+ home run guy to my lineup at a key position.
• Round 7 : Pick 4(76) - @fakebaseball - Josh Beckett - My pick of Beckett in the 7th round is another pick I didn’t want to make (I prefer drafting starters later, and growing up in New York City, the last thing I want on my team is *two* Red Sox…). However, I believe it’s critical to take the emotion out of drafting and stick to your rankings if you want to do well, and I think I got a great arm on a great team a round later than I expected him to go. For ‘09, I think an ERA of 3.50 with a 1.2 WHIP, 8.25 K/9 or better, and copious wins isn’t an outlandish projection. Haren and Beckett give me a strong start to my rotation, and while I’m digging myself a bit of a hole offensively, it’s one I hope I’ll be able to dig myself out of later in the draft.
• Round 7 : Pick 5(77) - @jefeboy - Andre Ethier - Here we are in the 7th round and I’ve yet to grab an OF, so why not start with one who has the ever-popular “upside.” Solid all-around contributor who could be more than that, if his 2nd-half breakout was legit. 25 HR.
• Round 7 : Pick 6(78) - @xxldaddyo - Jonathan Papelbon - Paps has become a groundball pitcher who doesnt walk anybody. He closes for a team thats gonna win 90 plus games so he’s a lock for 40+ saves.
• Round 7 : Pick 7(79) - @tommystv - Victor Martinez - In a two catcher league I like getting a top 5 Catcher if the timing is right. I know Victor has fallen off in the power department but he still puts the bat on the ball unlike most catchers. So if he’s healthy I got Joe Mauer two rounds later than Joe Mauer. Health is the key.
• Round 7 : Pick 8(80) - @sporer - James Shields - I always struggle with when to start taking SPs.  Well actually I don’t struggle so much as I put it off as long as I can.  I joined the fray earlier than usual with Shields, but it’s hard not to be very pleased as he’s a beast.  He has back-to-back 215 inning seasons with a 1.15 WHIP or better.  He doesn’t dominate batters like a Lincecum or Sabathia, but he’s at or near 7 strikeouts per nine, which is usable.  There is nothing to suggest that the Rays are merely a one-year wonder so he should have the offensive support for wins again in 2009.
• Round 7 : Pick 9(81) - @therotofeed - Carlos Pena - I had to respond to the power dwindling from the boards by taking a player I normally don’t like to roster - I generally want guys I can count on to hit at least .270. But I made the mistake of going with too much BA and not enough power a few years back and learned it’s a lot harder to trade high BA/R/SB guys than it is to unload a basher who can’t hit .250. Plus Pena’s second half last year looked an awful lot like his monstrous 2007.
• Round 7 : Pick 10(82) - @dowdyism - Vernon Wells - After a tough 2007, Wells bounced back nicely in 2008.  Hamstring troubles last season curbed his full season totals, but I think 25 HR and 100 RBI are not out of reach and I’m happy to add his bat to my outfield.
• Round 7 : Pick 11(83) - @jasoncollette - Garrett Atkins - Might as well enjoy the final few months of his productive career before he is traded away from Coors. Unlike Holliday, Atkins is brutal away from Coors. Atkins qualifies at both corner spots which is a nice bonus for 2009 but you can count on reduced production in August and September.
• Round 7 : Pick 12(84) - @seniorcircuit - J.J. Hardy -I passed up Jeter, Tulo, and Young for Hardy.  None of those guys seem as promising as Hardy does at shortstop and a decent shortstop is hard to find.  I don’t feel I reached too far to take him and love the possibility of him improving his batting average and hitting for a little more power. I expect 80/25/85/2/.280

Everyone has been screaming for rankings. I wanted to wait for a while, but I’m also tired of being harassed.

Remember that it’s December 30th, and this list will surely change by the time the season starts. Also note that every team has at least one catcher on this list, some teams two.

There are some catchers who have been left off of this list, most notably Jason Varitek and Pudge Rodriguez. These players won’t be added until they are picked up by a Major League club.

Here are the 2009 fantasy catcher rankings.

1. Russell Martin | Los Angeles Dodgers - He may not hit as many home runs or drive in as many as McCann and Soto, but he scores more runs and steals bases. His ability to contribute in five categories makes him the #1 choice here.
2. Brian McCann | Atlanta Braves - McCann tied for the lead amongst catchers in home runs, finished second in RBI, and was one of three backstops to bat over .300 last season. Expect more of the same in 2009.
3. Joe Mauer | Minnesota Twins - Mauer led all catchers with a .328 batting average last season and even though his home run total isn’t in double digits, he drives in runs like a fiend and scores more than any catcher out there.
4. Geovany Soto | Chicago Cubs - Won Rookie of the Year honors and the hearts of fantasy GM’s who took a shot on the unproven youngster in the 2008 draft. Don’t expect to get Soto cheap in ‘09 but do plan on him mashing balls again, and again, and again.
5. Ryan Doumit | Pittsburgh Pirates - Enjoyed a breakout season in 2008 and sits just outside of the elite catchers of this list. There is potential for Doumit to join them by the end of ‘09.
6. Victor Martinez | Cleveland Indians - It’s unusual to see Martinez this low on a ranking list, but injuries slowed the star last year. His power should return and opportunities to play at first base some could help keep him healthy.
7. Chris Iannetta | Colorado Rockies - Broke out to the tune of 18 home runs in only 333 at-bats. This young slugger could even improve his power production for 2009.
8. Bengie Molina | San Francisco Giants - Molina led all catchers with 95 RBI, something he’s always done well. He’ll be 35-years-old this year so be wary of his ability to reach 530 at-bats again, but expect the power production to remain.
9. A.J. Pierzynski | Chicago White Sox - This guy quietly hits 13-16 home runs and bats around .270 every year. Expect much of the same this season as Pierzynski is the model of consistency.
10. Mike Napoli | Los Angeles Angels - Hit a sick 20 home runs in only 227 at-bats last season. His second half was much better than his first half, so don’t pay for full season consistency on draft day. But, do imagine what he could do with 500+ at-bats.
11. Kelly Shoppach | Cleveland Indians - Filled in swimmingly for Martinez last season. If the Indians find him at-bats or make a trade, Shoppach could improve on his 2008 numbers.
12. Ramon Hernandez | Cincinnati Reds - Was driven out of Baltimore by a top prospect, but you can expect similar numbers in Cincy.
13. Kurt Suzuki | Oakland Athletics - In his first full season, Suzuki entrenched himself as the every day catcher. He may approach double digit home runs, but his true value is his better than most batting average.
14. Chris Snyder | Arizona Diamondbacks - Hit 16 home runs in 334 at-bats last season and has even more power potential. But, he needs to improve his .237 batting average to convince the team to stop platooning him.
15. Dioner Navarro | Tampa Bay Rays - It’s unfair to compare him to Joe Mauer, but he does seem like a cheaper knock off to the Twins catcher. Beware of a slight batting average dip due to his unusually high 2008 hit rate of 32.1%.
16. Yadier Molina | St. Louis Cardinals - Did a lot of fantasy GM’s proud as you don’t usually get a .304 hitter from the waiver wire. Expect Molina’s batting average to drop a little, but not by enough to stop enjoying him as a solid #2 option at catcher.
17. Miguel Olivo | Kansas City Royals - Love his 12 home runs in 306 at-bats last season. Hate his 26.8% strikeout rate and his 2.2% walk rate. He’s probably better left to AL-only leagues unless he finds consistency and earns extra at-bats.
18. Gerald Laird | Detroit Tigers - He’s finally going to be the only guy in Detroit after fighting for time in Texas. He improved his strikeout rate last season and saw a 50+ point batting average increase. Don’t expect another gain like that, but feel free to take a late round flier as Laird might continue to improve as he doesn’t have to look over his shoulder anymore.
19. Jorge Posada | New York Yankees - Posada is 37-years-old and coming off of a major medical procedure that kills most hitters power potential. With recent additions to the team he won’t be given many opportunities to DH either. Posada is a risky pick for 2009.
20. Jesus Flores | Washington Nationals - Flores strikes out too much and doesn’t walk enough. But, the Nats think he’s their catcher of the future. He does have some pop.
21. Rod Barajas | Toronto Blue Jays - Barajas is a 33-year-old journeyman who doesn’t offer much to fantasy owners at all. His 11 home runs don’t really make up for the .249 batting average. He might even end up in a platoon situation in 2009.
22. Brian Schneider | New York Mets - Schneider gets a majority of the at-bats for the Mets because of his defensive skills. Until they replace one of these five categories with defense, Schneider is pretty useless on your mixed-league team.
23. Matt Weiters | Baltimore Orioles - Weiters hit 27 home runs in his 437 at-bats at the Advanced-A and Double-A level last season. That was good enough for the O’s to bid farewell to Ramon Hernandez, practically giving the starting job to Weiters as a 23-year-old rookie.
24. Jason Kendall | Milwaukee Brewers - Kendall had three consecutive years of hitting above .320 and stealing more than 20 bases. Unfortunately those years were 1998 through 2000. Kendall’s only fantasy value comes from his 500 plus at-bats. At that’s not worth much.
25. Jarrod Saltalamacchia | Texas Rangers - Salty had fewer than 200 at-bats last season as a forearm injury slowed him. When he was healthy he didn’t show his top prospect stuff of old. With two top catching prospects in his rear view mirror, Saltalamacchia is too dangerous to run with as your #1 catcher.
26. John Baker | Florida Marlins - Baker was impressive last season in 197 at-bats and should enter Spring Training as the expected starting catcher. His .299 batting average, good strikeout to walk ratio, and good on-base skills could lead to a nice season. But don’t expect too much power production from him.
27. Jeff Clement | Seattle Mariners - Clement will be given every opportunity to be the M’s every day catcher even though he stunk it up after being called up from Triple-A. He has a ton of potential and you could do worse than he with a last round flier for your #2 catcher spot.
28. Carlos Ruiz | Philadelphia Phillies - Ruiz is sharing at-bats behind the plate. And until he figures out how to hit higher than .219, he’ll remain useless to the fantasy world.
29. Nick Hundley | San Diego Padres - Hundley has shown some pop in the minors hitting 20 home runs in 2007 at the Double-A level. But, he’s never had a decent batting average and he showed his inability to hit Major League pitching last season as he only batted .237.
30. J.R. Towles | Houston Astros - Towles was as touted of a prospect going into last season as Geovany Soto. Soto hit 23 home runs. Towles batted .137 and was sent back to the minors. Towles should be given the opportunity to be the Astros every day catcher in 2009, but his leash will be short.
31. Taylor Teagarden | Texas Rangers - In only 47 at-bats last year Teagarden hit six home runs and batted .319. He’s still behind Saltalamacchia on the depth chart going into Spring Training. But, if he wins the starting job, you’ll see his value skyrocket.
32. Kenji Johjima | Seattle Mariners - Johjima crashed and burned last season batting .227 in 379 at-bats, finally losing his job to Jeff Clement. While Clement is a highly touted prospect, he won’t be given a lot of rope to hang himself with. Johjima could slide back into the starting role at any time. Whether or not he produces, well that’s another story.