Crooked Pitch

It’s round eleven. This is the portion of the draft where teams really look to fill needs. It’s also where a lot of fantasy GM’s will start taking HUGE chances on sleepers. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7, round 8, round 9 and round 10.

• Round 11 : Pick 1(121) - @crookedpitch - Joakim Soria - The only reason Soria isn’t ranked higher on relief pitcher draft lists is that he pitches for the Royals. By overlooking him you’re overlooking one of, if not, the most dominant closer in the game. I was happy to make him my first closer drafted.
• Round 11 : Pick 2(122) - @Angels2717 - Xavier Nady - Taking back-to-back Yankees outfielders isn’t an ideal move for me, but I just realized how explosive Nady was in that last half of the season this past year. He was great in the meat of that order and now he’ll be probably hitting behind two powerhouse infielders (A-rod and Tex). Looking for a repeat of that great last half of the season.
• Round 11 : Pick 3(123) - @TheRoundtable - Jorge Cantu - Cantu makes you actually figure out what you believe. If you think last year was an anomaly, then you avoid him. If you think that he can build on that, and look at the fact he had some success even with Tampa, you’re willing to buy on this one now. I looked at corners here with the feeling that there is much more depth in pitching and outfield that I can grab in later rounds.
• Round 11 : Pick 4(124) - @fakebaseball - Mike Napoli - Choosing Napoli here, which I’m sure some of my league-mates would consider a reach, is an example of trusting your own rankings and research, and also how decisions made early in draft can impact later decisions. As mentioned in my 10th-round analysis, I project Napoli as a 2nd-tier catcher in ‘09, and by this point in our draft, he was the only catcher left from that tier. Usually I’m more fixated on grabbing pitching by now, but since I uncharacteristically chose three pitchers in the first ten rounds because of the nature of this particular draft, I felt comfortable taking a non-pitcher here if needed. Napoli usually falls significantly further in drafts than rd 11, but I didn’t want to take the risk of waiting, especially since I do see Napoli–despite significant misgivings on my part–as returning positive value even taken this high in a draft, and I didn’t like the alternatives should I wait and not end up with him on my roster. (Sure, the  temptation was there for Wieters, but there are too many unknowns with him, and the contrarian in me cringes at the defeaning hype surrounding him - when something seems too good to be true, it usually is…)
• Round 11 : Pick 5(125) - @jefeboy - Milton Bradley - See Huff, Aubrey. Another guy who make have peaked in 2008, and one with health risks at that. But at this point in the draft, he’s worth taking a shot on. He could be energized by Wrigley. The next 2 OFs taken were Milledge and C Young… younger, safer, maybe, but I’ll take my chances with Milton. .290 15 HR, anything more and I’ll be thrilled.
• Round 11 : Pick 6(126) - @xxldaddyo - Zach Greinke - This was probably the toughest decision I had to make thus far. I knew I would be going SP (yet again) but I was torn between Burnett, Gallardo and Greinke. In fact I initially selected Gallardo and then when the website asked me to confirm my decision, I hesitated, reconsidered and ultimately went with Greinke. Gallardo should be healthy and should be the ace of the Brewers (provided that he IS INDEED fully healthy), and AJ Burnett had a great 2008. But Zack Greinke has become a ground ball pitcher and come of age. He struck out more than a batter an inning in the 2H and had a 3.25 ERA during that same split. Kreikeys its Greinke!
• Round 11 : Pick 7(127) - @tommystv - Justin Verlander - Terrible ‘08, showed flashes of bouncing back after all-star break, but faltered shortly there after. ‘09 is going to be different, so I’ll take his upside in RD 11. I’m also counting on Detroit meeting ‘08 expectations in ‘09.
• Round 11 : Pick 8(128) - @sporer - Chris Young - I don’t have kids yet, but I hope that the first time they feel the ting of that hot stove, they leave it alone to avoid being burned again. Of course, how can I expect them to learn such a lesson when I myself am incapable of such cognitive learning? I scooped up Young everywhere I could last year expecting improvements on 2007’s 32 HR/27 SB performance. At the very least, I hope for similar HR-SB numbers with an uptick in AVG and RBI. I got the latter two pieces of the puzzle, but 10 fewer HRs and 13 fewer SBs to go with the slight gains. At just 25, the 30-30 potential remains at the forefront for Young.
• Round 11 : Pick 9(129) - @therotofeed - Placido Polanco - This was my worst pick in terms of timing (rrrrreach), though I love Placido Polanco as a means to raise cheap R and BA. I would blame this on the queue mechanism, but that would be a copout. For the record, I refuse to admit that Placido Polanco is not the name of the umpire in Naked Gun who tries to kill the Queen.
• Round 11 : Pick 10(130) - @dowdyism - Brian Fuentes - Fuentes takes over as the closer for a team that won 100 games last season, and is set up nicely for 90 plus wins in 2009. I heard some guy on their team last season had 62 saves in the same role, so penciling in Fuentes for 40-45 should be a pretty safe bet.
• Round 11 : Pick 11(131) - @jasoncollette - Joba Chamberlain - I’m glad he was still here in the 11th as I’ve seen him taken in the 8th. Draft him for solid skills in 150 innings and you won’t be disappointed. Expect more than that and you will be.
• Round 11 : Pick 12(132) - @seniorcircuit - Yovani Gallardo - As my second pitcher taken, I look for someone with a big upside. Before his injury experts were predicting a season of 13-15 wins and upwards of 180 Ks. His injury had nothing to do with his pitching mechanics and with a healthy season in 2009, I see him putting together a 14/177/3.65/1.27.

I had a really tough time naming this particular post. The point that I am trying to convey isn’t that the three players on this list are bad baseball players or that you shouldn’t draft them. I’m not trying to tell you that they’ll flop like the fish from that Faith No More video. What I do want you to hear is that when these three guys became the poster boys for sleeper picks in the 2009 fantasy draft, they very quickly became expensive. And when I say expensive, I mean Rodeo Drive expensive.

But anyway, for those of you interested, the two post titles I crossed off of the list prior to settling on what you see above are:

• “You drafted Matt Wieters in the 11th round, are you crazy???”
• “Don’t believe the over-hype”

Now let’s get on with the countdown:

The three most over-hyped players in every 2009 fantasy baseball draft I’ve read about, been a part of, or watched are Matt Wieters, Baltimore’s young catcher prospect, Nelson Cruz, the Texas Ranger’s Johnny-come-lately, 28-year-old  journeyman outfielder, and David Price, Tampa’s most promising pitching prospect.

1. Matt Wieters | Baltimore Orioles - Wieters is a beast of a young catcher who the Orioles drafted fifth overall in the 2007 draft. He stands 6′5″ and weighs 230 and, most importantly, is a switch hitter. The 2008  season was his first as a professional and he spent that time amassing 437 at-bats between Advanced-A Frederick and Double-A Bowie. Those 437 at-bats in 2008 were magical. He averaged .355/.454/.600 with 27 home runs, 91 RBI, and a 0.93 strikeout to walk ratio (76:82 K:BB). Yes, he walked more than he struck out! As fantastic as these numbers are, and they truly are superb numbers, you should have read between the lines and heard me say “He’s never logged a Major League at-bat”. Once again, he’s never seen a pitch at the big league level, not one!Even though he’s never hit in “the bigs”, the average draft position over at Mock Draft Central for Matt Wieters is 129.16. That means he’s being taken in the 11th round. He’s being selected before Chris Iannetta (144.16 ADP), another promising young catcher who hit 18 Major League home runs in 333 at-bats in ‘08. He’s also being taken before Xavier Nady (152.50 ADP) who belted 25 home runs and drove in 97 and Mike Aviles (155.68 ADP) who batted .325 with 10 homers and eight stolen bases. I would be shocked if Wieters out homered either Iannetta or Nady in 2009. And he’s certainly not going to drive in close to 100 like Nady or finish the season with a better batting average than Aviles.The 11th round, in my opinion, is still too early to take a huge risk with drafting Wieters. It’s true that he’s a high reward kind of risk. But, if he flops, your fantasy team takes a huge hit. I’d much rather go with the safer option at catcher in Iannetta if you need a catcher in the 11th round or go with more experience and power in Nady or a better batting average with Aviles.
2. Nelson Cruz | Texas Rangers - Cruz absolutely, positively tore up the Pacific Coast League in 2008. In 383 Triple-A at-bats he belted 37 home runs, drove in 99, and batted .342/.429/.695. Once he was called up to Texas he remained hot hitting .330/.421/.609 with seven home runs and 26 RBI in 115 at-bats. For those of you keeping score, Cruz hit 44 home runs last season in 498 at-bats and drove in 125.You know there is a flip side to this coin, right? Well, yes, there is.Prior to 2008, Cruz had never seen more than 307 at-bats in any Major League season. And in those three MLB seasons prior to 2008, his highest home run total was nine and the best batting average he could ever muster was .235. Once Cruz got above Single-A ball, he’s always hit well in the minors. In 2004 he batted .326 with 26 home runs. In ‘05 it was .289 with 27 homers. In ‘06 he hit .302 with 20 home runs, and in ‘07 he batted .352 with 15 homers. The minor league totals for Cruz aren’t what’s in question. It’s what he’s done once called up to MLB that worries me. In 2006 he followed up his .289/27 with .223 with six home runs in 130 MLB at-bats. He followed up his ‘07 .302/20 MiLB numbers with .235 and nine home runs in 307 MLB at-bats. Cruz hasn’t been the model of consistency or good hitting in the Major Leagues so far. There’s also the little fact that he’s turning 29-years-old this baseball season.His average draft position is 130.82, also placing him in the 11th round. I’m not saying that you can’t take a flier on Cruz and hope that his 2009 season looks more like 2008 instead of the rest of his career. What I am saying is that you should take this flier if Cruz falls to the 15th round or later. Not the 11th. Just like our conversation above about Wieters, I would still take Xavier Nady instead of Cruz in the 11th; 100% of the time.
3. David Price | Tampa Bay Rays - Price saw his first professional baseball action in 2008 after an illustrious career at Vanderbilt. The Rays took Price with the first pick in the draft in 2007 and Price saw MLB action in 2008. It wasn’t much though. He only pitched in five games, and only started one. His true colors began to shine in the playoffs when he started saving games with the poise of a veteran. In the minors in 2008 Price saw action from Advanced-A all the way up to Triple-A. His combined record in 19 starts was 12-1 with a 2.30 ERA and a 3.41 strikeout to walk ratio (109:32 K:BB). He proved that he can mow down MiLB batters. He also showed off his potential MLB skills in the playoffs.Price’s average draft position is 136.19, which places him as a 12th round draft pick. That means he’s coming off of the board before Ryan Dempster (153.20 ADP), a 17-game winner last season, Zach Greinke (154.80 ADP), who had 13 wins and 183 strikeouts, and even Randy Johnson (154.64 ADP), who may have pitched to Babe Ruth but still strikes out 170+ and keeps his ERA under 4.00. What I am getting at here is that you don’t really know what kind of pitcher Price will be as a starter in his first big league season. Heck, you don’t even know if he’ll break camp with the Rays. The safer picks remain with any of the three guys listed above. Price probably won’t strike out 180 like these guys will. Price might not get double digit wins or keep his ERA under 4.00 for an entire season. But Dempster, Johnson, and Greinke most likely will.

In conclusion, I’m not trying to bad mouth any of these players. I think all three could become stars. I’m just not sure that their stars will rise in 2009. I also believe that in the 11th or 12th round it’s still time to take safer players. Leave the reaches and sleeper picks to the 15 rounds and on. If you want proof, ask any fantasy GM that took J.R. Towles last season in the 11th round or so how they feel that pick treated them.

We just looked at the hitters, now it’s time for another installment of the biggest risers from an Average Draft Position standpoint; the pitcher edition. This data, as always, is tabulated over at Mock Draft Central.

1. Homer Bailey | Cincinnati Reds | +50.6% - The Reds are asking the Yankees for either Xavier Nady or Nick Swisher, but talks are stalling as the Yanks want Homer Bailey in return. This is causing a frenzy of mock draft participants grabbing Bailey, just in case this trade comes to fruition. Bailey’s ADP has risen in the last week from 412.57 into the 23rd round at 274.01.
2. Jason Isringhausen | Free Agent | +21.9% - Isringhausen is looking into signing with four teams. At each destination he’d have an opportunity to close. Are people desperate enough to draft a relief pitcher who isn’t currently on a team and who doesn’t have a closer job 100% locked up? Apparently the answer is, “Yes.”. Isringhausen’s ADP has risen from 339.98 into the 23rd round at 274.01.
3. Barry Zito | San Francisco Giants | +19.3% - Zito is living proof of the old baseball addage, “you can be a bad left-handed pitcher and still pitch it in the big leagues”. Seriously guys??? Zito was 10-17 last season with a 5.15 ERA and led the majors in walk rate. Why has he risen in the last week from a 23rd round ADP of 257.47 to an 18th round ADP of 215.74? Zito should be undrafted in mixed-leagues until he can assure you he won’t start the season 0-8 again. And by assure, I mean pitch his ass off!
4. Brian Fuentes | Los Angeles Angels | +18.4% - Fuentes made last weeks list at the #2 spot. This week he’s still climbing. People are really starting to dig on Fuentes in the closer role in LA. He moved from the 15th round (172.67 ADP) to the 12th round (141.72 ADP).
5. John Lannan | Washington Nationals | +17.8% - Lannan, the Nationals ace, is starting to get some love from the mock draft world. He’s up into the 23rd round at 272.89 ADP from 321.57.

Other notables: Fernando Rodney (+17.0%), Masahide Kobayashi (+15.8%), Pedro Martinez (+14.6%), Manny Delcarmen (+13.3%), Todd Wellemeyer (+11.3%), Jeff Samardzija (+10.5%), and Tommy Hanson (+10.1%).